Fortunately, it doesn't happen very often, but I've had a losing week this week. Only £15 so hardly a bank breaker. Unfortunately, it still means that I'm struggling to get myself into the black for this month.
Actually, I've had a relatively lazy week. I cut back on my trading significantly, simply because I was feeling I needed a break, and with me not getting anywhere, no was as good a time as any.
I'm feeling a bit more refreshed now, so hopefully I'll be able to get my act in gear and move into profit in the days ahead.
Sunday, 8 November 2009
Friday, 6 November 2009
Lay The Draw
Since I started looking at trading football more frequently, I've primarily been using that old favourite, Lay The Draw. Sometimes, I use 0-0 cover for insurance, sometimes, I don't bother. In all cases, I've been getting out if the odds for the draw have dropped to a point where my losses would be half of the original liability.
This evening's game between Derby and Coventry was a perfect example.
With only 4 mins on the clock, Coventry's goal put me in a spot of bother. I'd covered the 0-0 as insurance, so that bet was lost, and the draw odds barely moved. I could have scratched the draw there and then and taken the 0-0 loss on the chin. However, I decided to old on a bit.
With Derby equalising early in the second half, the draw odds shot in and it wasn't long before they reached my stop loss point. Of course, as is the way of these things, Derby scored the winner as soon as I had traded out.
I have to say I have had no luck with this strategy whatsoever. Indeed, I have yet to have a profitable trade using Lay The Draw. To such an extent that I think it is time to lay this to bed. At least, laying before kick off. Laying at half time, or a little into the second half when the odds are much less may be a better option.
For the moment, I'm going to leave it and look at something else as that strategy simply isn't working for me.
The shocking run I've been on since the start of the winter horse racing continues without any sign of letting up. It is not just the horse trading that is suffering. Just looking at this month, I'm £10 down on the horses and £28 down on the football. Only the dogs are showing a tiny profit, though they've tried their best to be in the red as well.
The spell I had in mid-October is increasingly looking like a flash in the pan. I can only take solace from the fact that more experience and competent traders also appear to have it tough at this time of the year. It doesn't make it any less frustrating mind you.
This evening's game between Derby and Coventry was a perfect example.
With only 4 mins on the clock, Coventry's goal put me in a spot of bother. I'd covered the 0-0 as insurance, so that bet was lost, and the draw odds barely moved. I could have scratched the draw there and then and taken the 0-0 loss on the chin. However, I decided to old on a bit.
With Derby equalising early in the second half, the draw odds shot in and it wasn't long before they reached my stop loss point. Of course, as is the way of these things, Derby scored the winner as soon as I had traded out.
I have to say I have had no luck with this strategy whatsoever. Indeed, I have yet to have a profitable trade using Lay The Draw. To such an extent that I think it is time to lay this to bed. At least, laying before kick off. Laying at half time, or a little into the second half when the odds are much less may be a better option.
For the moment, I'm going to leave it and look at something else as that strategy simply isn't working for me.
The shocking run I've been on since the start of the winter horse racing continues without any sign of letting up. It is not just the horse trading that is suffering. Just looking at this month, I'm £10 down on the horses and £28 down on the football. Only the dogs are showing a tiny profit, though they've tried their best to be in the red as well.
The spell I had in mid-October is increasingly looking like a flash in the pan. I can only take solace from the fact that more experience and competent traders also appear to have it tough at this time of the year. It doesn't make it any less frustrating mind you.
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
Not A Good Start
Well, November has started where October left off - with my trading all over the place. Ever since the clocks changed and the winter racing schedule came into being, I've struggled. The place markets have, in the main, been dead, so I've been playing in the win markets and all the old frustrations have come flooding back.
You know the ones... sit 2-3 ticks behind the market and you NEVER get matched as the market moves off in the direction you predicted, leaving you behind... jump ahead of the market in order to ensure being matched, and an immediate reversal puts you 5+ ticks down within seconds with no sign of it coming back.
Obviously I haven't adjusted yet to the change in conditions. More worryingly, it is affecting other markets, most noticeably, the greyhounds. I haven't fully adjusted to the change in those markets either, with all the money now in those races following the horse racing. This caused me to lose £12 in the first dog race I tried late yesterday afternoon.
Even my luck on the football isn't there.
I felt there would be goals in the Chelsea game last night, so I drip fed small back bets into the over 2.5 goals market as the odds increased, with the intention of bailing out when the odds were such that I could red up for half my total stake. This happened at odds of 7.80. No sooner had I got out and the goals started flying in. It finished 2-2.
So, November is currently running at a loss, but plenty of time to turn that around.
You know the ones... sit 2-3 ticks behind the market and you NEVER get matched as the market moves off in the direction you predicted, leaving you behind... jump ahead of the market in order to ensure being matched, and an immediate reversal puts you 5+ ticks down within seconds with no sign of it coming back.
Obviously I haven't adjusted yet to the change in conditions. More worryingly, it is affecting other markets, most noticeably, the greyhounds. I haven't fully adjusted to the change in those markets either, with all the money now in those races following the horse racing. This caused me to lose £12 in the first dog race I tried late yesterday afternoon.
Even my luck on the football isn't there.
I felt there would be goals in the Chelsea game last night, so I drip fed small back bets into the over 2.5 goals market as the odds increased, with the intention of bailing out when the odds were such that I could red up for half my total stake. This happened at odds of 7.80. No sooner had I got out and the goals started flying in. It finished 2-2.
So, November is currently running at a loss, but plenty of time to turn that around.
Saturday, 31 October 2009
October 2009 Summary
Well, the end of another month and I'm pleased to say a much better one than the 3 months before it. Even then it had it's ups and down, with this week spoiling what would/could have been an excellent month and turning it into a good one.
I've only made £9.22 this week thanks in the main to my horse trading skill, what little I have anyway, completely deserting me. The week was saved by some football trading today, specifically, backing over 3.5 goals in the Arsenal v Spurs match not long before The Gunners scored two quick-fire goals.
With that good fortune, the month closed with the same luck as it opened. If you recall, I nearly got hung out to dry by a power cut which left me with a significant amount of money in a dog race. Fortunately that turned out rosey, but I could have started the month some £200 down.
So, despite the hiccup this week, I'm delighted with this month's return and a lot happier than I was during the summer months.
Listed below are the totals for each market/sport I got involved in throughout the month:
Greyhounds... £234.02
Horses... £460.76
Soccer... £44.17
Formula One... £1.14
I'm please that the greyhounds have performed a bit better, though a big chunk of that was due to the aforementioned good fortune at the beginning of the month. I'm particularly please as I've actually been cutting down on the amount of time I spend in the greyhound markets, so hopefully that type of return will continue.
The horses have been my main earner and it's not often I've said that. I returned to the place markets after my summer attempts at the win market, and clearly that paid dividends. However, with the change in the clocks and the start of the earlier races at the beginning of last week, I found the place markets particularly thin. As a result, I found myself gravitating towards the win markets again.
I have been venturing there during the evening meeting throughout the month, so it wasn't quite the shock one might expect. That said, this week shows how difficult I still find it. I wasn't losing huge amounts. Indeed, I was putting in some decent trades. Unfortunately, I frequently threw away any decent profits I had built up, which was rather annoying.
It will be interesting to see how the horse racing develops as we move into November. I tried the win markets in November last year and failed miserably. Here's hoping this coming month doesn't see a repeat of that.
With the horses taking a turn for the worse this week, I forced myself to take some time out and start looking at the football.... and promptly lost on the first match I got involved in. Today though was a different matter with three profitable matches under my belt. So more of the same please for November.
Finally, spare a thought my inability to take advice when it is offered. Regular readers may recall that very early in the F1 season I was ruing not taking Jenson Button to win the F1 drivers championship when advised to do so at odds of 66/1. £1.14 is all I have to show for my efforts instead of what could have been.
Hey ho! We live and learn.
I've only made £9.22 this week thanks in the main to my horse trading skill, what little I have anyway, completely deserting me. The week was saved by some football trading today, specifically, backing over 3.5 goals in the Arsenal v Spurs match not long before The Gunners scored two quick-fire goals.
With that good fortune, the month closed with the same luck as it opened. If you recall, I nearly got hung out to dry by a power cut which left me with a significant amount of money in a dog race. Fortunately that turned out rosey, but I could have started the month some £200 down.
So, despite the hiccup this week, I'm delighted with this month's return and a lot happier than I was during the summer months.
Listed below are the totals for each market/sport I got involved in throughout the month:
Greyhounds... £234.02
Horses... £460.76
Soccer... £44.17
Formula One... £1.14
I'm please that the greyhounds have performed a bit better, though a big chunk of that was due to the aforementioned good fortune at the beginning of the month. I'm particularly please as I've actually been cutting down on the amount of time I spend in the greyhound markets, so hopefully that type of return will continue.
The horses have been my main earner and it's not often I've said that. I returned to the place markets after my summer attempts at the win market, and clearly that paid dividends. However, with the change in the clocks and the start of the earlier races at the beginning of last week, I found the place markets particularly thin. As a result, I found myself gravitating towards the win markets again.
I have been venturing there during the evening meeting throughout the month, so it wasn't quite the shock one might expect. That said, this week shows how difficult I still find it. I wasn't losing huge amounts. Indeed, I was putting in some decent trades. Unfortunately, I frequently threw away any decent profits I had built up, which was rather annoying.
It will be interesting to see how the horse racing develops as we move into November. I tried the win markets in November last year and failed miserably. Here's hoping this coming month doesn't see a repeat of that.
With the horses taking a turn for the worse this week, I forced myself to take some time out and start looking at the football.... and promptly lost on the first match I got involved in. Today though was a different matter with three profitable matches under my belt. So more of the same please for November.
Finally, spare a thought my inability to take advice when it is offered. Regular readers may recall that very early in the F1 season I was ruing not taking Jenson Button to win the F1 drivers championship when advised to do so at odds of 66/1. £1.14 is all I have to show for my efforts instead of what could have been.
Hey ho! We live and learn.
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