Night And Day

Looking back over recent weeks, it seems that, in general, I am much more consistent in the evening race meetings than those in the afternoon. This is amply illustrating in the following graph for today's results.


I'm not sure why this would be the case, though the obvious answer may lie in my past experience of the thinner greyhound and place markets. I'm not so sure it is as simple as that though. However, irrespective of the reason, it is clearly something I have to work on.

The good news is that the afternoon meetings are not seeing me make huge losses. It is just that I am very inconsistent. Further progress will not be forthcoming until I learn to control these losses on a regular basis.

This evening's racing was interesting in that, to a large extent, I concentrated on the favourite of all things and managed to catch some good swings to boot.

I noticed over the past couple of days that as I tried to avoid the favourite, I was frequently missing significant swings as I traded one of the lesser fancied runners. I wanted to see if I could pick up on some of them, whilst at the same time being very wary of what some might describe as my nemesis in recent times.

I didn't trade all favourites. Only those that had showed persistent moves in one direction or the other. This seemed to work well allowing me not only to recover from this afternoon's minor loss, but post a reasonable profit as well.

More of that tomorrow will do very nicely thank you.

13 comments:

playslip said...

Just thought i would say hi,love the blog and any tips for a novice trader who keeps doing his bollocks,and dont say give up because that to me is a cop out any help would be appreciated.

Alistair said...

Hi playslip and thanks for the comment.

The fact that you 'keep doing your bollocks' tells me you need to work on your money management more than anything else.

Protect your bank at all costs is a mantra you will hear and read many times. All good traders/gamblers have that at they core of their activities.

Other than that, practice, practice practice. Trading is not something that will happen overnight. You need to put in long hours over many months before things start clicking. I'm still learning and practicing.

Not many traders will tell you how to trade a particular market. However, a great resource for pointers is the excellent forum operated by the folk at Racing Traders. There's lots of info there regarding tennis and soccer in particular.

Bottom line though is stop using all your bollocks when trading. Learn how to eat the elephant.

Alistair

PhilipH said...

Or the other adage:

It's a marathon, not a sprint!

(But I can't really comment as I waved the white flag weeks ago!)

Phil

The Scalper said...

I haven't enjoyed Ascot at all, I prefer to be in and out of the market in as little time as possible but the volume of money here means I can't do that.

I gave yesterday a miss and I might do the same today.

Alistair said...

Hi Scalper,

I'm wary of the Ascot races as well. I've tried a couple and came to grief so I've stayed away in the main.

Alistair

Steve said...

Been the opposite for me , I've been loving Ascot. Tripled my stakes and it's really paid off. Haven't found scalping a problem as the direction of the markets have been quite easy to predict and there's been no drastic jumps in the odds due to the masses of cash around.

The difference in your night/day profits are possibly due to the lower liquidity and larger spreads in the markets Alistair. Without knowing your strategies it's hard to say but if you're waiting for the market to come to you by offering prices rather than taking odds available lower liquidity is usually a bonus but sitting in a market waiting for the price to hit yours usually means the direction isn't going your way in the higher liquidity markets.

Alistair said...

I had a little go in a couple of Ascot races today Steve. Scratched one of them and made a few quid in the other.

Completely different trading style of course, but one I will ultimately have to develop. Still, it was encouraging enough for me to have another look tomorrow.

Thanks for popping by.

Alistair

Steve said...

You have to remember the markets at big meetings behave differently to say your wolverhamptons etc because the prices have usually been set well in advance of the race , all(?) horses are trying and more importantly all horses are being backed. The prices are almost set in stone for the last five minutes and any real market moves move slowly because the weight of money doesn't allow them to move any quicker. This allows us to kick bets into the market either side of the spread and just wait for them to be matched by the normal ebb and flow within the market, you can almost feel any price breaks coming and either jump ship by a small loss or scratching and jumping on board for the ride.

Take a look at the live shows on sportinglife site to see what I mean. Whilst there was movement in the markets it's all on a gradual scale with no big price jumps and the majority of price changes would follow through or just settle back at previous prices. Compare those to price movements at the other afternoon meetings where there were probably big changes within the prices.

You'd have to be pretty unlucky in trading to be the wrong side of a wolverhampton type steamer/drifter of 2 -> 7 etc at the big meetings. Don't be put off by the large amounts as they keep prices static for us and get eaten away and replaced pretty quickly so sitting either side of the spread will usually be taken a lot quicker than you might think.

These markets are perfect for scalping but swing trading is a no no unless the price is due to crack, don't cross the spread unless you see the price going just kick your bets into middle or box 1 sit back and wait to get matched. Try it with £2 stakes to try and get the feel for which horses are best to scalp and remember as most money is always traded on the fav that'll probably be jumping around more than the others although today I dont think any of the favs traded more than one fractional price point from opening show to sp.

Alistair said...

Thanks for that excellent comment Steve. I shall have a much closer look this afternoon rather than using the opportunity to make another cup of tea!

It obviously makes sense in these high quality, big meetings that the markets will tend to hover around a fixed price. I think it's my experience of thinner markets that makes me fearful of a sudden move that sweeps me aside.

As you say, that's unlikely to happen and if things do go the wrong way I'll be able to get out with a small tick loss than I probably would in thinner markets.

The idea of looking for a 'balanced' position in the market and simply putting equal sums on either side at the same time and waiting seems eminently sensible. Something to try this afternoon.

Thanks again.

Steve said...

Just treat the afternoon as a learning exercise with small stakes, plenty of other big meetings to cash in on. The markets will be moving so slow you'll still have time to make those cups of tea :)

Heres a screenshot of this afternoons Group 1

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/9482/57457820.jpg

If you look at the prices now they're almost flatlining even with the relatively smalls amounts in the market, 5-10 minutes before the race I'd expect much the same but with much more money available. The graph is just see sawing between the back and lay box 1's as the majority of punters want to get on.Later on the large amounts will encourage them to take prices available rather than ask, as like you they'll assume there's no movement. If you were to log the amounts matched however you'd see that even though the prices appear almost static large amounts are being taken either side of the spread and just replaced by traders/backers willing to wait those extra 30 seconds or so.

Bear in mind the usual stuff like resistance points within price bands as these will indicate to you if prices are about to break or have reached a peak. Whilst you may get a 7/1 shot trading at 12's at wolves it's not going to happen at Ascot. We may get some steamers in the handicaps but these should be moving slowly enough to spot and unlikely anything drastic will happen within the group 1's/stakes races.

These meetings really are perfect for trading as everything is moving in slow motion and movements become alot easier to spot. Don't let the amounts put you off, the only reason theres lots of money available is because theres lots being matched.

Good luck

Alistair said...

Once again Steve, thanks very much for the input. I shall certainly have a look this afternoon with small stakes.

That's a very interesting screen shot. Not just for illustrating the point you are making but the fact that your displaying multiple Betfair graphs in Firefox. Can I ask how you are doing it?

Alistair

Steve said...

In my old spreadbetting days I got sick of cutting and pasting info off sites like football data/sporting life etc to work out my own prices and realised it'd be much easier to automate the data retrieval so taught myself some basic php and mysql as they were both free and plenty of code snippets around.

I'd loads of bot snippets lying around and cobbled a few together to scrape the betfair site and sporting life to display them all on one page to make things easier to see at a glance.

Can't say I'm a big fan of graphs as they usually only show what's happened rather than what will happen but they do have there uses and I do refer to them quite a lot.

Alistair said...

Thanks for that Steve. I presumed it was something you'd developed yourself.