On paper, it should be the simplest thing in the world. Assess a match, team news, form etc, etc, and place a bet accordingly with a view to trading out for a pain free profit before kick off. The price will move in your favour as everyone else comes to the same conclusion as you. Don't they?
Not in my case they don't. I've tried pre-match trading many times, in a variety of different markets, but I never seem to assess the mood of the market correctly. I may very well get the outcome of the match correct, but the pre-match moves? Very rarely, if ever. Indeed, I'm beginning to think that I should, once I've formed an opinion, oppose it. Certainly, going on past results, I'd be in profit.
My latest venture into the pre-match arena was for the St Etienne v Monaco game taking place today. After reading of the home side's depleted team; the fact that they struggled to get past a 4th level amateur side in the cup midweek, requiring extra time and penalties to do so; not to mention their poor home form where they've scored only five goals in eleven home games, I decided to back Monaco on Saturday evening.
I placed a back bet waiting to be matched at 3.15 and went to bed. When I got up this morning, the price had gone out to 3.45 at which point a traded out for a guaranteed loss of £7.50. Thank goodness I did, as the price was out at 3.70 late afternoon.
So, how does one go about correctly assessing what all the other traders are doing (and by definition, the market), in order to successfully trade pre-match? If I ever find out, I'll be keeping it to myself.
Alternatively, just oppose whatever I think of the game. I know I am going to.