How To Profit With Pre-Match Soccer Trading

On paper, it should be the simplest thing in the world. Assess a match, team news, form etc, etc, and place a bet accordingly with a view to trading out for a pain free profit before kick off. The price will move in your favour as everyone else comes to the same conclusion as you. Don't they?

Not in my case they don't. I've tried pre-match trading many times, in a variety of different markets, but I never seem to assess the mood of the market correctly. I may very well get the outcome of the match correct, but the pre-match moves? Very rarely, if ever. Indeed, I'm beginning to think that I should, once I've formed an opinion, oppose it. Certainly, going on past results, I'd be in profit.

My latest venture into the pre-match arena was for the St Etienne v Monaco game taking place today. After reading of the home side's depleted team; the fact that they struggled to get past a 4th level amateur side in the cup midweek, requiring extra time and penalties to do so; not to mention their poor home form where they've scored only five goals in eleven home games, I decided to back Monaco on Saturday evening.

I placed a back bet waiting to be matched at 3.15 and went to bed. When I got up this morning, the price had gone out to 3.45 at which point a traded out for a guaranteed loss of £7.50. Thank goodness I did, as the price was out at 3.70 late afternoon.

So, how does one go about correctly assessing what all the other traders are doing (and by definition, the market), in order to successfully trade pre-match? If I ever find out, I'll be keeping it to myself.

Alternatively, just oppose whatever I think of the game. I know I am going to.

5 comments:

The Tranquil Tiger said...

Try paper trading this angle for a week you may be surprised!

Pick a football match, any match where there is over £100k traded pre KO

Look at the O2.5 goals market and where the market perceives what the outcome will be with a fair degree of certainty, oppose it.

What is a fair degree of oertainty?

A price of 1.75 or less

eg. Arsenal v Hull City, the market fully expects Arsenal to easily outclass Hull City and fully expects there to be at least three goals.

The prices are

Over 2.5 Goals - 1.68
Under 2.5 Goals - 2.32

Back the unders or lay the overs

Decide from the outset of this paper trading experiment what your exit point will be and stick with it for the week.

eg. let all trades run for the full 90 mins, or, try for a pre determined profit per match, 10%, 25%, 33%, 50% etc.

Simple ;-)

Nic said...

Hi mate, I read your post and straight away a massive mistake jumped out at me.

When you are trading football matches, you have to make the bet early, IE: DAYS before the game, before the market settles. Then you MUST trade out the night BEFORE(not back the night before)as all the big money comes in on the day of the match and the exchanges go mad.

I'd advise you to use odds checker and find the average price. If there's 1 outstanding price way bigger than the average, betfair usually matches that early on and it will come in.

Secondly, always stick to league you know really well.

Nic - http://nics-value-picks.com

Nic said...

Here's an example just based on odds, no team news or anything, just odds and the fact I know that this is an over price.

So don't use it, just monitor it and see....

Sporting Gijon vs Valencia saturday night-

Sporting @ 19/5 (4.8) to back now on expekt (not actually on betfair). Average price on bookmakers boards is just over 3/1. Skybet are as low as 11/4(3.75)

Check the exchanges late friday night or very early saturday morning and see if you can get a lay price of about 4.0(or even lower)

Nic

Alistair said...

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you chaps. It's been a hectic week and I'm only just beginning to catch up with recent comments.

A couple of interesting tips there, thanks you. I shall endeavour to look at them more closely over the weekend, in between the horses, greyhounds, rugby etc, etc.

There's just far to many thing to do just now it a wonder I get the chance to try anything new.

Epico said...

I'm still a noob but your blog helped me alot.. cheers!