Requirement: Calculate the individual stakes required based on a fixed overall maximum liability.

Looking at the correct score market of the Arsenal v AC Milan match to be held tomorrow night (6th Mar 2012) we see the lay odds for the 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 scores are as listed in the table below. Note, those scorelines have been picked at random for illustration purposes and do not indicate any thoughts I may have on the game.

From those odds, the implied probabilities can be calculated by dividing 1 by the odds. The table summarises those calculations so far:

Score | Odds | Win Prob |
---|---|---|

0-1 | 16.0 | 0.0625 |

1-1 | 8.4 | 0.1190 |

2-1 | 10.5 | 0.0952 |

3-0 | 29.0 | 0.0345 |

3-1 | 20.0 | 0.0500 |

So, the total probability of one of the chosen results being the full time score is simply the total of the last column, i.e. 0.3612, or 36.12% if you prefer. However, we don't want those picks to be the winning score since we wish to lay them all. So the overall probability of the final score being something other than one of our five picks is simply:

1 - 0.3612 =

__0.6388__
This is equivalent to decimal odds of:

1/0.6388 =

__1.5654__
Now, we need to calculate the total stake to be used when laying these picks so that the overall liability is fixed at £100 say. This is simply:

Total Stake = Fixed Liability * (Overall Odds - 1)

=> Total Stake = 100 * (1.5654 - 1) =

__56.54__
Now, all we have to do is to split this total stake across the five picks in proportion to their odds. This is done using the formula:

Stake = Total Stake * Win Prob / Total Win Prob

So, in the case of the 0-1 scoreline, the Stake is:

56.64 * 0.0625 / 0.3612 =

__9.80__

The following table summarises the results for all the chosen scorelines:

Score | Odds | Stake |
---|---|---|

0-1 | 16.0 | 9.80 |

1-1 | 8.4 | 18.66 |

2-1 | 10.5 | 14.93 |

3-0 | 29.0 | 5.41 |

3-1 | 20.0 | 7.84 |

So we now have the stakes required for each selection ensuring that the liabilty should any of the selections end up winning is fixed at 100. If we decided to add another scoreline to our picks, the overall liability would remain the same, but all the individual stakes would change.

Here's a screen shot from the Fairbot dutching calculator to confirm the figures, albeit with a few pennies different due to rounding differences.

## 2 comments:

Hi, I've linked to your site and would appreciate a reciprocal link:

Website URL: http://goalprofits.co.uk

Link text: Goal Profits Football Trading

Description: Profitable football trading using correct score and lay the draw strategies.

Hi Steve, I finally got around to putting your link up. Sorry for the delay.

You'll find it on the links page.

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