Video - Dutch Trading Options

One of my favourite in-play strategies is to dutch two or three runners before the off with a view to trading out in-running. This video discusses why I select the runners to be included in the dutch and goes on to show a successful trade.

9 comments:

Gee Dee said...

Alistair.. I always find your theories / experiments extremely interesting. Do you actually use any of these experiments in your daily betting or do they remain experiments.

Alistair said...

Yes I do GeeDee. The Dutch Trading ones are probably my favourite and I do the in-running scalping strategy from time to time.

Most of the others, I don't use much for a variety of reasons though I do revisit them frequently particularly if I think of a way of re-applying them or tweaking them for different situations or markets. The trouble with that is there simply isn't enough time in the day, especially when I only do this part time.

Gee Dee said...

Hi Alistair.. I have been drawn to your Dutching & Your In Running Scalping techniques, but could not decide which would be the more successful. On some days both techniques seem as if you can not do a thing wrong & then you get the odd full loss, reducing you back to a small overall loss. There has also been the odd day where you get 4 or 5 multiple blow outs, which are bank breakers. I am doing this in simulation mode, by the way. When Greening up, for quaranteed profit, I have had it turned into a loss as some bets are not taken. Would this be more likely with live betting?
Scalping, I prefer the 5 sec kill, it then occurred to me that this may cause a problem with the Bet Count?

Alistair said...

I would suggest that Dutching or Dutching with a view to trading out in running is the most successful especially if you do your homework in advance so that you select runners with a good chance of winning. This gives one more confidence of letting the race run longer where the rewards are greater.

The in-running scalping technique is more of a blind trade in that one doesn't need to know anything about the horses concerned.

You will get better results if you have decent pictures. As you learn to read the races you can make more reasoned decisions regarding getting out against letting it run.

As you've noticed, there is an issue with greening up as submitted bets might not be taken. This is particularly true the more runners you have positions on in each market. Note that in simulation mode in Fairbot (I cannot say for other software) the refresh rate seems to be throttled compared to live mode. You can easily check this by watching how clickly the numbers in the grid changed in one mode then switch to the other mode and compare the two. As a result you should see better performance in real mode.

There's some things you can do to minimise these issues:
1. With Dutching, try and select no more than three runners. Ideally just the two.
2. Make sure you are using stake amounts that will not cause the software to try and submit bets below the £2 stake minimum as the bet submission process will take twice as long.
3. You may find you get better overall results with in-running scalping by not getting involved in the first half of the race as discussed in my videos. Let the race settle down a bit before getting involved then delay getting out - especially if watching - as the market gets more volatile. Note you will get more losers this way, but the increase in returns will help to counteract that. That's what I've found anyway.
4. Instead of relying on your own reflexes and reactions to press that green up button only for it to change as you click consider using the automation facility to set up a rule so that the software submits a green up request once a target profit has been reached. It won't completely alleviate the issue and it removes some of the flexibility of letting your position run but it will eliminate any hesitancy on your part. It doesn't stop you manually greening up if you feel the need.

Good luck in your endeavours.

Gee Dee said...

Alistair.. Thank you for sharing your experience & advice. I have only had access to William Hill Radio, which has 8 to 10 secs lag. I often wondered how you were able to show Betdaq pictures, on your video, when you were in Simulation Mode. I was hoping that once I had pictures I would be able to assess what I considered to be danger signs & make a safety move, even if it later transpired I was wrong. Currently I am totally confused by the Green Up figures & don't know when to consolidate a small profit / loss on an individual runner & how it will affect the overall Green Up. In my testing stage I have gone for quantity rather than quality, with book percentages between 70% & 92%. I have tried laying the runners over 1 hour before the start & individually increasing odds on medium to outside chances. If the favourite is particularly short I sneak a few extra ticks on that sometimes. I periodically check to see if anything has started to steam. If anything has, I can amend the bet to reduce return or let it run. Anyway if I can be of any assistance to you, please ask. I always welcome any advice you may offer. Good Luck with your endeavours

Bet Your Life Sports Trading said...

GeeDee,

When those videos were made Betdaq made the stream of the race freely available on their website. However, sometime ago, they started blocking the stream unless you place a bet on the race concerned - just like Betfair do.

Gee Dee said...

Thanks Alistair.. Regarding your comment about keeping Dutching to 2 or 3 horses. My intention was more towards trading than betting & going for the percentages. I had intended to try & Dutch as many horses as possible even to a small percentage, if it gave consistent accumulating profit. So it was a question of trying to find a way of minimising the losses, when its all going against you, but of course anything that involves In Running , is extremely volatile.

Bet Your Life Sports Trading said...

Gee Dee, keeping the number of selections down to two or three is more important when looking to trade out in-running. For two reasons:

1. The more selections you have for a given stake size, the lower the potential profit if you were to let the race run to its conclusion. When trading however, it means you have less potential profit to play with which leads me on to point two...

2. As you spread your stake over more runners, the selections have to shorten more to overcome the stake sitting on the other runners. This means you almost inevitably have to let the race run for much longer in the hope that one or more of your selections shortens enough to get you into the great.

Towards the business end of the race the prices become more volatile ans you may find that greening up doesn't complete properly because some of your selections that are not running well are drifting in the market so rapidly that the closing lay on each of those runners is not taken.

Gee Dee said...

Alistair.. Again thank you for the feedback, it is greatly appreciated, it builds up my knowledge base & the reasoning for doing things. I will refine my selection process & try more checks in simulation mode. I had accepted the smaller profit potential in exchange for winning more often, akin to trading principles. Obviously I am mixing trading principles with gambling principles & perhaps missing the effect that each aspect may have on results. My approach was based on a statement you made on a video that you like to dutch as many runners in the field as possible. Thank you .