And It's A Hat-trick

Today's Results:
Horse Racing... 6.8% loss. New bank... £51.79

After the losses I've incurred from my horse trading bank over the past two days, I wanted to spend this afternoon monitoring the markets and only get involved when I felt absolutely ready. So much for that plan.

Before I describe the day, a quick word about my staking...

I started towards the end of February with £10 in my horse trading bank. Since then I've traded with the full amount, adjusting my stake with each win/loss as I moved on to the next race. Once my bank reached £50 I 'ring-fenced' the original £10 but kept it in the bank. I then carried on as before with the remaining £40 intending to 'ring-fence' a further £20 once the bank reached £100.

The long term plan was to repeat this process every time I reached a multiple of £50. However, after my confidence was somewhat shaken over the past couple of days I decided to bring that forward so that at the start of play today my initial stake was £25.57.

So, having reduced my stakes today, how did I get on?

The afternoon was not too bad really, despite kicking it of with a loss. To be honest, I very nearly jacked it in there and then. I wish I had, as all will soon become apparent.

Still, I pushed on and quickly recovered that loss moving into the black in the next five races I entered. By this time there was only one more race to go and I made a real pig's ear of that. Fortunately, I managed to reduce some of the deficit before the off, but still wound up losing.

That was a disappointing end to the afternoon, but at least I was in profit for the afternoon's work. After the events of the past few days, that was the most important thing - even though it was only 1.9%.

Then came the evening races. Dear, oh dear, oh dear....

By this time I was feeling a lot happier than I had done this week and was looking forward to carrying on. I was soon to be put in my place.

All afternoon I had concentrated on the place markets. I had successfully spotted lots of large movements, though I didn't manage to get on them due to lack of confidence brought on by the past two days. Unfortunately, the place markets in the evening were hopeless. So after failing to get on anything in the 6:50 I switched my attention to the win markets for the next race at Dundalk. A big mistake.

Three races and half an hour later, I'd lost a fiver and I was down 6.8% on the day. I'm beginning to think I'm fated to never master the win markets. Possibly fated never to master the horses.

I'd get myself into a position where I was confident that the general trend was in a particular direction and I'd place my opening bid accordingly. As usual, the market would turn against me immediately and I'd get out for a two tick loss. The market would then immediately reverse back through my original entry point into what would've been a profitable position. So bloody frustrating.

Yet, when I forced myself to ignore the short term fluctuations, not take the two tick loss, expecting the market to follow the general trend it would simply carry on in the wrong direction and before I knew it, I was looking at a 5-10 tick loss.

I simply cannot read these win markets with any degree of confidence and I'm even more pissed off than I was yesterday. It's typical that things seem to be going belly up after my BinarySoft BDI trial has ended and I've forked out over £100 for a subscription!

So, where to from here?

I'm essentially going to go back to basics. I'm going to 'ring-fence' another £10 so that my stake level drops to £11.79. In essence, I'm starting again and I'm going to stick to the place markets where I built up my bank in the first place. I'm extremely disappointed that I'm doing this, but I feel it's a necessary step to protect my bank and get back on track. I just hate to think that I've wasted all that time.

2 comments:

Graeme Dand said...

Alistair,

This is going to sound like I'm not being very sympathetic but I chuckled when I read your post!

Firstly, apologies for that! However, it brings the memories of 6/7 weeks ago flooding back to me....

I only ever traded on the win markets in the horse-racing but I had the identical issues you are having. If you read some of my early posts, you'll laugh at how similar they are to your post!

Every time I took a loss, the market rebounded. Every time I let the losses run, they just kept on running! I sufferred at an alarming rate of being able to back the horse that was about to go on the biggest drift of all time! Seriously, some of the graphs looked like Mount Everest and I had backed it at the bottom of the maountain....

All I can say is that you ae probably correct to reduce your stake size. I went in the opposite direction as I thought I'd trade better with higher stakes but all it happened was my winnings got larger and my losses got larger! More volatile and more risky! A bad combination!

Good luck though with turning it around. Remember to keep trying out different things as you may stumble across something that works for you.

Graeme

Alistair said...

Thanks for the good wishes Graeme. I think I'm going to need it.

This is the fourth time I've tried trading the horses. Over the past 18 months or so I've used Bet Angel Basic, Bet Angel Pro and BetIE.

My first attempt with BAB was OK as long as I stuck to minimum stakes. As soon as I upped-the-ante I started losing. Sitting around for hours on end earning pennies was not what I called fun so I packed it in.

I still felt myself being drawn to the horse racing and so last spring I tried the trial version of BAP. It was much the same story.

Still the pull of the geegees was too great so I forked out £100 for BetIE. I wasn't using that as a trading tool but I was doing a lot of hedging and dutching with it. I scrapped it because the software is crap in my view. It would frequently fail to do what I'd asked it to do. Indeed, I lost a fair bit of cash because as a direct result of it's failings. When I flagged all the issues to the developers all I got was abuse.

I'd given up on trading the horses after I completely moved to Linux as I thought there wasn't any trading software available for that platform. Then I discovered BinarySoft BDI. So here I am again.

I have to say, I've been doing better than I ever did before, but this week has knocked the feet from me a bit.

By going back to the beginning I'll hopefully be able to rebuild my confidence without threatening the profit I've already secured.