A Day For Experimentation

I sat down in front of my pc today with every intention of trading the afternoon away, yet that is not how it panned out.

I didn't get involved in the first few races as nothing much seemed to be happening. There was a distinct lack of cash in most of the place markets today which only served to make the afternoon that little bit more boring.

Indeed, it was so bad that I committed my cardinal sin and took a look at the win markets. I got involved in a couple, one with a one tick loss and the other with a one tick gain. After all that effort, I was down a few pence which I'm not even going to bother recording in my bank.

By this time I was pretty bored to be honest so I thought I'd try a little experimentation with hedging in the place markets. When I first started this lark back in February, I had tried this a few times for fun and hadn't had a failure. The in-running markets are something I want to get into as I feel there's definitely profit to be had, for reduced risk - less money, more ticks - was my way of thinking.

I wasn't intending to trade in-play. The place markets do not have the liquidity in my view. However, my way of thinking was that I'll have 2-4 chances of winning depending on the number of places available. So, I wanted to place a small back bet on my preferred horse (actually, the Racing Post's preferred horse as I know nothing of form etc) with a view to laying off in-running.

So, I gave myself the grand total of £10 to spend, giving me 5 hedges to minimum stakes... and promptly lost the first three races I got involved in.

Upon reflection, I was far to greedy in placing my closing position in these races. Having said that, during my aforementioned previous attempts at this, my picks all went on to place, so I did have a precedence. Anyway, reducing my target profit to around 30% - 50% of my stake in the next three races worked well and I clawed back some of my losses.

So, a £3.80 loss which is no big shakes and I shall continue this experiment for a number of reasons:

First off, I want to get into a more measured trading/hedging state where I can utilise the form books (something I must get better at). Having that type of knowledge must give an edge.

Secondly, related to the idea of in-running trading, I believe one will get better value during a race, whilst risking less. In the process, recognising that there is a higher gambling element here than in pre-race trading.

And finally, whilst pre-race trading is a useful skill to have and in which I shall continue to try and attain some measure of proficiency, I do find it somewhat boring.

So there we have it. At the cost of £3.80 a useful afternoon was spent in identifying a potential new area for trading/hedging. More experimentation needs to be done, much of which is likely to be on paper, as I learn to read the race cards properly - a lot of which I simply do not understand at present. Once that's in place, I'll probably setup a separate bank just for in-play trading/hedging.

2 comments:

knocker said...

Mate - 3 years ago I knew nothing whatsoever about horse racing. I've been through the mill, I've adopted, abandoned, re-adopted and now integrated trading and form study. I've realised that I actually do know a bit about the game, I like to think that I'm an intelligent guy and I can gain some sort of edge over my exchange adversaries. I've re-entered learning mode and I feel more bullish about the situation than I have done for months.

I am going to blindly trade races in the future, but the profits will simply be to feed my gambles. A sort of risk free situation because I've traded myself the money.

It has to be the way. Trading gets you the tools, informed form reading supplies the results.

Come on!

Alistair said...

That's a good plan knocker - using your pre-trading to provide the cash for your other activities.

I'd like to get to the same place. Unfortunately my trading bank isn't of the size I'd need to provide the regular funds. Still, I'm working on it.