A Frustrating Profit

Today's Results:
Horse Racing... 3.7% profit. New bank... £37.34

I should be happy with a 3.7% profit on the day, but I'm not. I traded 7 races today, with 2 of them being small losses, but what was frustrating was the way I was throwing away good positions.

On four separate occasions I had got myself into good, greened up positions only to get greedy and go back in for another nibble and lose most, if not all of it. So today's mantra with which to send myself to sleep with is...

I missed much of the racing today due to family commitments, which also meant I missed the Davydenko v Tipsarevic quarter final in Miami. My liabilty for that would've been £3.37 which will now be carried forward to the semi-final where it will be combined with the result of the Federer v Roddick match.

I've laid Federer @ 1.23 with a back bet sitting at 1.30 to give me just over a 20% profit after commission. I'd imagine that that will be matched pretty early in the game, but I won't bother staying up to find out.

Back again for another installment tomorrow.


Loocie said...

Hi Alistair,

i found your blog and enjoy reading your thoughts and ideas about trading sport events. I also run a blog http://layyourself.blogspot.com/ and added a link of your blog.
I have a question to your tennis hedging strategy: Do you bet on every match from start of quarter finals or do you have some selection criterias? Hope to here from you!

Good luck, Loocie

Alistair said...

Hi Loocie,

Thanks for the link. I've added your blog to my list as well.

With regard to the tennis hedging strategy, the only reason I've been betting from the quarter finals onwards is that I started with a £10 bank which gave me a £2.50 stake for each game. Once my bank builds, I'll start in earlier rounds.

Essentially, one decides how much one is prepared to lose for the whole competition. You then split this figure in to equal stakes to cover the number of games in what ever round you enter.

As far as selection criteria are concerned, if you follow the gist of the Peter Webb article then you should get involved in every game, keeping in mind that some 10% will fail.

I haven't been doing that simply because I find that I'm not around all the time. Also, I prefer to lay short priced favourites as, for a given liability, it requires a smaller price movement in ticks to get the 20%.

I've only just started doing this and the strategy may evolve over the weeks and months, but at the moment it's going OK.


Loocie said...

Thanks for your explanation. This strategy sounds very interesting. I will investigate historical tournaments to see how profitable this strategy could be.

I will inform you.

All the best, Loocie

Alistair said...

Cheers Loocie,

I have a spreadsheet which, for a tournament with 32 matches in the opening round and a 20% profit after commission will give 159.25pts to take into the final for an initial outlay of 64pts (2pts/per game in the 1st round). Assuming of course that all games are successful.

If you are confident, and at a greater risk of not being matched, you can increase your target profit/match for greater returns.

The beauty of this strategy is you can bale out at any stage you like and ignore games you are unsure of.