A Tale Of Two Markets

Today's Results:
Horse Racing... 13.5% profit. New bank... £75.36
Tennis... 13.6% profit. New bank... £16.92

After yesterday's struggle I spent some time last night thinking about what to do next. Don't get me wrong. Yesterday's 2.5% loss was hardly a disaster but it was such emotional, brain sapping hard work that I felt it necessary to think about what I had been doing badly.

That process brought me round to thinking that perhaps I need to look at the win markets again. My experience of these so far has been somewhat hit and miss. But I've always been aware that I'll need to address these at some stage because as my bank grows, the liquidity in the place markets will become an issue. Indeed, I'm seeing signs of it already in some races.

The difficulty I've had with the win markets is that I find it very hard to separate the short term price fluctuations from the medium to long term ones. As a result, the large amounts of cash flying around, particularly within the last few minutes just makes me cross-eyed - no mean feat on a vertical ladder.

In addition, one of the areas I've identified where I have issues in the place market is one of boredom. For reasons of liquidity I like to wait until the last five minutes but I have to seriously control the urge to jump in earlier than that. As a result, I get bored, my mind wanders, or worse I end up trying to force trades that aren't there in some subconscious attempt to keep me occupied. I've even missed excellent movements, or indeed the race, because I'll go off and start browsing the web just to keep occupied and completely forget what I'm meant to be doing in the first place.

Then I hit on my cunning plan...

Avoid the big money that rushes into the win market in the last five minutes by trading with ten minutes to go. There's still plenty of liquidity for my meagre bank and certainly a lot more than in the place markets. Then, with five minutes left, switch to the place markets where I've been successfully building up my bank the past few weeks.

In the place markets, I tend to trade manually. I don't use stop losses and let my position ride as much as I dare. With the win markets, I decided to use some of the functionality of BinarySoft BDI. I still wouldn't use a stop loss, preferring to do that manually, but I'd use the software to automatically place my closing trade 1 tick away from my opening bid and I'd only leave the initial bid in the market for 5 secs or so.

And that is how I spent my afternoon. After yesterdays poor showing I was nearly 20% up by dinner time. Unfortunately, I threw a big chuck of that away in the first of the evening races at Wolverhampton at which point I decided to stop. I generally don't like ending on a losing trade, particularly one of that size, but I decide not risk my remaining profit from what had been a particularly intensive afternoon.

So, the graph is pointing back in the right direction again to the tune of 13.5%.

Bausch And Lomb Championship Tennis...

I used my Tennis Hedging Strategy in this competition once again entering at the quarter final stage. As mentioned in an earlier post I successfully hedged the first three quarters but I decided not to get involved in the fourth.

As before the plan was to put the return from these matches into the corresponding semi-finals but that didn't happen. I didn't realise that after Davenport's withdrawal the other semi-final was brought forward to 6:00. As a result I missed it. So that ends my involvement in the competition. One of these days I'll manage to do more than one round!

Still, a satisfying 13.6% profit to add to the tennis bank.

2 comments:

leonthefixer said...

Mate - finding your blog one of the best around at present, probably as you are doing what I did - starting small and building it up. I just looked back and checked you started with £10 as far as I know you havn't added to this so you have increased your bank some 753.6%. Now that is some going in such a short period of time! Imagine if you could keep that rate up! I wish but never the less you have done some achievement getting to where you are.

I have a few things I would recommend, recording your trading so you can go back and examine where you went wrong or right. I do this everyday - the recording part, and used to watch my videos every morning when I first started out and it helped massively - I then got lazy and thought I didn't need to do it anymore, after my recent slump I have gone back to watching the videos and am now back doing it everyday it is well worth it! I use camstudio to record my day and would be more than happy to supply a copy if you want, I will even send a video of a day or probably part of a day say race if you so wished. The files are pretty big though. Also you would need two monitors to see them as I record over three screens so two would be the minium for making it visable as far as I know.

Also be careful looking at the market 10mins before the off, the money around is small and you can get huge sudden movements! I only get involved at the 5 minute mark sometimes a little later if like you have lost track of time and am watching something else or doing something else. I found that when I got involved before the 5 min mark I lost. I came up with numerous things to stop me getting involved - I even started going for a pee between every race! I now either chat to people on MSN or Skype or watch neighbours or other programs I have sky plus'ed. If I don't have a distraction I start clicking and I start losing my hard earned.

As I said before I havn't traded the place markets but would recommend looking at the win markets more as there is a lot more money around and as such a lot more chances. Switching between the two may be difficult for a few reasons such as if you have a loss on the win market will you be happy to leave it and move onto the place market when if you stayed you may be able to reduce it or turn it around. Also I am guessing the two markets are very different to trade, are you going to be able to mentally switch styles quickly enough?

Lastly for tonights pep talk :-) Remeber you are in a gambling business and as such you are going to lose from time to time, you aren't going to win everyday, I know from a lot of experience they are not enjoyable especially if it comes towards the end of the day where you lose all the profit but just keep disciplined, walk away if needs be, go for a piss or a cup of tea or something and recompose, if you don't kepp disciplined in these situations you are not going to be able to win it back but instead will add to it! Discipline is the key!

Lastly if you use MSN or Skype and would like a chat (typing) drop me a message at my blog with your email details or skype username and I will add you.

All the best and just remember losing is part of the game and you have achieved a lot more than many do already just keep building it up and you will be winning your current bank each day in no time!

Leonthefixer

Alistair said...

This won't do Leon. Your comments are becoming as long as my posts! LOL.

Joking aside, thank you for your support. It's much appreciated. 753.6% eh? I'll have to take the evidence along to my bank and ask if they can match it!

At the moment, I don't have the need to record my screen - I use Linux by the way so CamStudio would be of no use to me. Although I have screen recording software, I haven't used it to record my trades preferring to jot the results of each trade in a journal before moving on to the next one. Still, the option to record the screen is there if I need it.

I appreciate you comments regarding 10mins before the off. From what I've seen today I'll persevre with it from the point of view of building up my experience of the win markets. What I imagine happening is that I'll slowly but surely encroach into the last 5 mins as my experience and skill grows and the pre-race place markets may end up a long forgotten memory.

Having said that, I do not plan to abandon them altogether as I have designs on those markets for an in-play hedging strategy. But I won't start investigating that until I've got a much more substantial bank than at present.

And then there's the soccer and golf markets I'd like to crack as well as the continued development of the Tennis Hedging Strategy. There's just not enough time in the day.

Thanks again mate. Catch you later.

Alistair