Don't Stop Believin'

Today's Results:
Horse Racing... 14.1% profit. New bank... £183.88

Yesterday's Betfair crash had left me somewhat apprehensive going into today's trading; and it showed. In the first 5 races I entered I scratched 3 and managed a total of £2 profit from the other two. My trading didn't feel right though. I was hesitant in every trade I entered. Then came the first loss of the day...

I was trading 'Saddlers Way' in the 2:30 at Perth, and got it completely wrong. In the blink of an eye, I was nearly £5 down. I managed to get a few pence back by trading 'Alexander Zone' but I was running out of time so I took the loss on the chin. Not a major disaster, but it served to further sow the seeds of doubt in my mind, which unfortunately spilled over to the next couple of races. I managed to scratch the first of these, but the next, the 2:50 at Salisbury was where things went awry.

I ventured into the win market as there was only four runners and there was no place market available. As you all know by now, I'm not confident in the win market yet, but the mistake I made was not reducing my stakes before jumping in. I backed 'Uig' at 3.90 and it immediately turned on me. I managed to get out at 4.20 and in a flash, I was down £4.

I was so disgusted, and in a fit of pique, I closed BinarySoft BDI and went downstairs to have a cuppa. No sooner had I reached the last step, when I suddenly felt unsure if I had any further liability or not and ran back upstairs. (I've a terrible short term memory - Whenever I lock the car I usually end up returning to it to check, having walked a few yards down the road, knowing full well that I did; I used to send the kids, but they've sussed that one now). Once up and running again, I spotted the favourite, 'Naughty Thoughts', steaming in so I jumped on. I managed to get my loss down to under a £1 though I got greedy and lost a couple of ticks, but I came away with a loss of £1.43 rather than £4.00.

Spurred on by this near full recovery, I moved on to the next race, my tantrum all but forgotten; and promptly made one of the biggest single race profits I've achieved since I started. I traded both 'Mill Row' and 'Turbo Shandy' in the 3:00 at Perth for a combined profit of £6.59. That was really pleasing. I was in profit for the day, my losses from yesterday had been recovered and all was right with the World.

I carried on for the rest of the afternoon, making steady profits of around £1.00 per race. I had to pick my daughter up from school at 5:00 so the 4:45 was going to be my last race. That's when the Betfair gremlins struck again. I tried to submit my opening bid, but BinarySoft BDI reported back that it had trouble submitting the bet. It's refresh rate jumped way into treble figures and it ultimately lost connection. I switched to Firefox and went to Betfair website, which took an age and three refresh attempts to load. I finally managed to confirm that I did not have any open positions, so that was a relief.

I don't know if anyone else had a problem. My internet connection was fine, as I was able to load other websites without any delay. Anyway, I decided to err on the side of caution, and switched everything off in the knowledge that, despite a shaky start, I was up 5.6% on the day.

I found the evening racing a bit more difficult in that I was having trouble spotting any movement or potential jumpy markets. I happily traded away adding small amounts to the pile, encountering a couple of small losses on the way. Then came the 7:50 at Folkestone and everything just clicked.

'Manoram' was trading at just over 3.00 and the trend graphs clearly showed that it was coming in, despite the short term spikes that were appearing. Just the kind of market I like. I managed to snatch a couple of small spikes, before a fair sum of money took the odds out. It was as clear as day, that the odds would shorten and fortunately that money was present in the market just long enough for me to react and grab some of it. As soon as I was matched the odds jumped back in again. Bang! £10 profit ta very much!

I successfully traded another two races but didn't come close to pulling that one off again.

So, a total of 30 races traded today, with 4 losses and 7 scratched resulting in a 14.1% increase to the horse trading bank. More importantly, today reaffirmed that I can do this, even when my mind is flooded with doubt. All it takes is a little belief.

Don't stop believin' indeed.


leonthefixer said...

Well doen mate!

£10 in one race is some going no matter what stakes you are using! It is great to see you are back believing in yourself again, everyone goes through the rocky patches and self doubt it is part of the game unfortunatly. However, having that experience will have done you good no doubt, I am sure you have learnt a lot about your mind set and how to deal with the issues that arose in your mind. Well done on taking that break as well, just walking away for a minute can avoid going on TILT which can be very very costly!

I also experienced some problems around the time you mentioned. I always have a look on the BF forums straight away if I suspect something as there are some pretty savvy people on there that notcie things very quickly. The best places to look are the General Betting Forum and the Horse racing forum. I know a few others who also experienced a slowing of the site. So you weren't alone.

I always keep an eye on the refesh rates and if it hits a figure over 500ms I stop normally. My normal refresh rate is around 70 to 100ms.

Best of luck tomorrow mate - keep the good run going!

Alistair said...

Thanks, yet again, for your support Leon.

Yesterday certainly saw a range of emotions. Fortunately for me I was able to check the negative feelings quickly and get back into it. If I'd walked away, yesterday's post would've had a completely different tone - all because of two poor trades back to back.

Thankfully I was able to regain my focus and ultimately put in my best trade to date. I'll be happy for more of that today.