In The Evening

Today's Results:
Horse Racing... 6.8% profit. New bank... £273.30

I didn't get around to any trading until this evening as I'd spent the day with a client. Still, it proved to be a successful two hours though at times a frustrating one...

After a bite to eat I settled down for the first race at 6:20 but I couldn't get going. It was the same for the next two races, all of which I scratched for a combined total of a few pence. I was actually thinking about giving it up for the evening as I was finding the markets quite difficult to read. There seemed to be reasonable amounts of money around in the place markets, but bets weren't being matched. I thought I'd give it one more race, and I'm so pleased I did.

I had managed a couple of ticks on 'Norminster' but my opening bid didn't get fully matched so I wound up with only a few pence. Then I spotted 'Yachvili' looked like it was going to drift. Sure enough, as soon as I placed my lay bet, off it went - big time. I wound up with my best trade so far - £11.30.

If I'd held my nerve, it could've been a lot bigger. A few times it looked like the trend had lost momentum so I traded out only for it to leap ahead again moments later. So I'd jump on again. As a result, I missed out on quite a few ticks during that drift but I've got to be delighted with the result in any case.

In the next three races, I didn't trade well in that I threw away a few pounds from profitable positions simply through greed and the hope of a few more ticks. I first of all turned a £2.20 profit into a £1.47 loss in the 7:50. Then I reduced a £4.10 profit into £1.68 in the 8:10 and completed the hat-trick in the following race by turning a £2.00 profit into a £0.24 loss. Stupid!

Then, as if that wasn't enough, I lost out in the last thanks to a late withdrawal which saw a £4.30 greened up position on 'Whatdoidowiththat' being reduced to £2.78.

I traded 10 races this evening, scratching 3 and losing on 2 (costing £1.71 - so not too bad). This gave me a profit for the evening of £17.49 - equivalent to 6.8% of the bank. An excellent result thanks mainly to that one race.

I should manage a full day trading tomorrow so here's hoping that I continue my recent rate of progress.

4 comments:

Iranian Giraffe said...

nicely done again m8,
you seem to be pretty much on top of your game trading overall at the mo, 1 thing I always forget to ask do you green up on all the horses so to speak or just leave profit on the horse/horses you have traded?, as on the place market it would obviously be much easier to pick a horse to finish in the top 2/3 and get a bigger profit but then I guess because the odds are lower than the win market then you would make more of a profit (so to speak) greening up than if you backed and layed say a 15.0 odds horse on the win market and greened up on that one.
glad to hear your still able to trade I'm in limbo at the mo due to this response issue.
regards
Mike

Alistair said...

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your comments.

I always green up. In actual fact, I use BinarySoft BDI which automatically hedges each trade so I don't need to worry about greening up as an extra step.

I'd like to get into in-play trading, or at least place a hedge in advance in the place markets. Once my pre-race trading return per race is a sensible amount, I will look to re-investing some of that in-play.

However, before I do so, I need to learn a bit about form study as I know next to nothing about horses. Until then, I'll concentrate on the pre-race markets.

Alistair

Anonymous said...

Well done on your recent progress.

Have just downloaded a trial version of BinarySoft but have no idea how to use it. Is there a guide available anywhere?

Alistair said...

Binarysoft BDI takes a little getting used to if you are more familiar with using odds than percentage probability figures - despite the fact that they mean the same thing.

I'd start off with the excellent on-line help system. Make sure you read that thoroughly at least once before placing any bets. Also, as with any unfamiliar application that involves your money, use small stakes until you are comfortable.

On this point, by default, BDI uses an amount per point staking scheme. So a back bet of £1 stake at 25% (decimal odds of 4) will give you a liability of £25. The same stake at 66.67% (1.5 odds) will have a liability of £66.67.

In other words when backing, the liability increases for a given amount/point as the probability increases. The inverse is true when laying. In this way, when backing and laying to the same amount/point, BDI automatically hedges your trades, i.e. greens up.

When you first use BDI, this concept, if you do not understand it, can give you one hell of a liability - and a fright! The first time I did it, I canceled the bet and immediately withdrew most of my money from my Betfair account as a safety measure in case I did it again and was matched.

To avoid this, you may want to change the staking method to 'Liability Mode'. In this case the sum you specify will always be your liability whether you back or lay first. I'm still using this mode, though it has disadvantages.

I have to say, I really like BDI. There's still somethings it lacks, but I know many of these will be addressed in the next version. It's fast, stable and best of all, it works on Linux.

As I said though, make your first port of call the on-line help system. Have fun.

Alistair