That's More Like It!

Today's Results:
Horse Racing... 15.9% profit. New bank... £340.70

What a day! My best so far! £46.70 added to the bank thanks to today's efforts. I traded 31 races, scratching 4 of them and losing on 5 (costing £16.47).

This afternoon's trading was going very well. I was up over £30 by 4pm and really gunning to break £40 for the first time. I guess that was a mistake, putting myself under pressure like that, as I threw away £13 in the last hour. £8 in the 4:20 and a further £5 in the 5:05. What was particularly annoying about these was, unlike me simply assessing the market incorrectly (which I can happily accept) I repeatedly told myself that the market was unsuitable.

As I looked at 'Gee Dee Nee' in the 4:20 , I was muttering over and over in my head that the market was very weak and I should stay away. Then, suddenly, it looked like the odds were about to drift and I couldn't help myself as an almost involuntary click of the mouse opened my lay position which was immediately swallowed by a big jump in the opposite direction. I was lucky to get out for as little loss as I did.

The second loss was due to me looking at 'Kayf Aramis' in the 5:05 which was trading at around 3.00. Virtually every time I look to back a horse at this level in the place market I end up losing. Consequently, I keep telling myself to leave well alone. So why I tried that one I don't know. Just plain stupid.

In the grand scheme of things, making a profit is the important thing, but throwing away such a big chunk of my final profit is clearly careless. This leads me on to a point that I've brought up on more than one occasion in this blog...

Once again, after closing out for a guaranteed loss, the odds came back in both these trades. If I'd gritted my teeth and hung on for 1-2 mins I would've got 2-3 ticks profit. This really is becoming annoying and leaves me with quite a dilemma...

In the event of the market going against me quickly, and I'm unable to get out for a 1-2 tick loss should I let it ride until it comes back? Alternatively, Should I refrain from entering the market in the first place until the last 90 secs or so, instead of 4-5 mins before the off?

My gut instinct with the second option is that I'll miss a lot of good and significant trends. Equally, we all know the gambling gods like to have a laugh so it is almost inevitable that hanging on in hope will see a whopping loss.

I think what I need to do in the first instance is record the number of times the odds return in my favour after closing out all red. At the moment, I'm relying on my memory, which, at my advanced age, is not what it used to be. If I find that I am indeed correct in my believe that the vast majority of these odds come back to my opening position then I will have my answer.

I stopped for dinner after the 5:05 and relaxed. I was satisfied with getting £26 profit during the afternoon, despite the annoyance of the aforementioned losses.

For the start of the evening session, I ring-fenced a further £30 of my bank and dropped my stake/liability to £70.

I found the evening races quite difficult in that there were few big moves going on - that I could see anyway. However, I made steady progress adding small amounts as I went. I had a couple of small losses, but I was still edging towards the £40 mark as I went into the last two races.

In the 8:45 I made the bad decision of jumping on 'Dualagi' far too early and I quickly found myself down a couple of quid. However, I managed to get it all back on 'Black Moma' and get myself into the green for the race. Unfortunately, the dreaded late withdrawal saw that profit turned into a small loss.

I opened the last race with one of my worst trades and I quickly found myself down nearly £3 on 'Danseuse Volante' when the price shortened unexpectedly. The £40 target was looking iffy, but a couple of minutes later, and true to my aforementioned observation, the price went on a major drift and I came away from that race with a £9.22 profit and the best result of the day.

So a VERY satisfying day, and a bank that now stands at £340 after 3 months from a £10 starting position. Chuffed or what?


Anonymous said...

well're going from strength to strength


Anonymous said...

Hi Alistair,
yes, your bank is growing, so no need to change anything, other than up the stake.
May care to consider red-up for half the loss, instead of all of it.Trade it again as (if) pos'n moves in our direction.
Plus trade other runner(s) that 'move'in the meantime.
Important to observe over/underound fig, we don't want to see it too far away from 300%..........Smokey

Iranian Giraffe said...

again nicely done m8, glad your not having any problems trading unlike myself with these refresh rate problems which a lot of people are having, not been able to do much with the horses recently because of this but like the Golf last week I managed to trade on the "Britains Got Talent" show on betfair for a nice profit of £36 before the refresh rate getting/placing bets went upto 11seconds (as in it took 11 seconds to place a bet after I clicked it and thats not including the 5 seconds extra because of it being in play)
again well done

Alistair said...

Thanks for the comments chaps. £50 a day would do my nicely.

Bloody hell Mike! 11 secs! I didn't realise the delays that some folks were having were that bad. You'd be quicker using the standard Betfair web interface. I hope it gets resolved for you soon.