The £900 Will Have To Wait

Today's Results:
Horse Racing... 2.7% loss. New bank... £867.30

Have you ever had one of those days where you really wish you hadn't got out of bed?

I went to visit my mum today who's currently recovering from a second replacement ankle operation. On the way there, I nearly crashed the car. I pulled out in front of someone at a roundabout - I thought they were turning off, but no. Fortunately, my car is reasonably powerful to accelerate out of trouble.

I returned in time to catch the first race of the day which went comfortably enough winning just under £3. Then, the 2:10 saw me embark on a run of 4 losing races. The worst of these was the 2:20 at Perth were I lost on THREE separate horses, racking up a combined loss of just under £12. When this was followed by another £4 over the next two races, I switched the PC off.

I simply couldn't read the markets more wrongly, and when it is like that, it's safer to walk away. So that's what I did - a 3 mile trip round the local countryside. A lovely warm day, so no need for a coat. Halfway round, the heavens opened. I actually quite enjoy walking in the summer rain, but I usually prefer to wear a rain coat. 30 mins later, I got home, soaked to the skin.

I got back in time for the 3:50 in the hope that I'd have the correct trading hat on. It seemed to be as I kicked off with a reasonable win. But then it all fell apart again. Two more badly judged races later saw me a further fiver down and I've struggled ever since.

Since then I've lost on a further 3 races and now that my daily losses have gone past £20, I've decided to quit. I'm clearly not in the right mindset now. Instead, I shall chill out for the rest of the evening and try again tomorrow.

Out of 17 races, I've lost on 9 of them, with 5 of them scratched. Absolute dross!

6 comments:

Iranian Giraffe said...

Hi m8,

I've not had the chance to read your blog recently as I've been busy and so not had the chance to trade much on the horses myself (instead the last few days I've had a few trades on the Tennis instead and got £160 from it so I'm more than happy with that).
As you are dealing with the place markets you're more than likely going to have a few negative days as the money in the markets is a lot less than what is in the win markets so IMO you do bloody well to make such a profit overall (and lets be honest thats what counts).
It will be interesting to see how you change your trading with regards to the problems you think you maybe starting to get with your larger bank.
anyway again well done on the nice monthly profit.
Cheers
Mike

Anonymous said...

Alistair

Well Done for stoping today. Several of my worst days were when I wasn't in the correct frame of mind because things outside of trading had gone wrong.

Keep up the good work.

Drifter

Alistair said...

Hi Mike,

Many thanks for your kind words and well done on your tennis profit.

I like the jumpiness of the place markets, so tennis is something I should take too. However, I've tried trading tennis blind in the past and that's a shortcut to the poor house. I'll have to wait until I can get a TV near my computer.

My larger bank shouldn't be influencing my trading as I only ever trade with a liability of £80-£120. The reason for which I'll explain in a later post which I have planned when I hit four figures.

I just didn't seem to be in the right frame of mind today. I had hoped going for a walk would clear my head, but no. Always safer to stop in those circumstances. There's plenty more racing tomorrow.

Alistair

Alistair said...

Hi Drifter,

Good to see you're still around. I trust things are well with you.

I never like walking away when there's a loss on the table, but it just wasn't happening for me today. Better to protect the bank's health and live to fight another day.

Thanks for popping by and don't be a stranger.

Ali

Pete Thunder said...

Mind if i ask you a couple of questions? My day too was horrible, couldn´t do anything productive so i hit a big loss. Anyway, my questions are these, for a trade to be successful how many ticks in your favor do you have to take? Second Question, what tool do you use to predict movement? Currently i see the graphs betfair provides and look for "spikes" as they indicate a movement. Seeing the WOM i try end decide if the movement is a drift or a shortening and enter the market accordingly. Another tool i look is the WIN markets, as more often than not, a strong or regular drift or shortening there WILL manifest itself on the place markets. It will not happen very strongly on heavy favorites (Odds of 1.30 or less), but will register nonetheless. I do this on an early stage, 20 to 10 minutes before the race, as my connection wont allow a fast trade, (Being in a EVDO connection on Venezuela will make that to you)

On a side note, the markets did everything in their power to prove my predictions wrong today. Just as i entered them the floor

Alistair said...

Thanks for the comments Pete. Don't take this the wrong way, but I find it strangely reassuring when others find the markets difficult as well. We'll claw our losses back today shall we?

As far as your questions are concerned...

1. I am generally looking for a minimum of 5 ticks, but I'll take 1 if necessary.

2. I currently only use the streaming graphs available in BinarySoft BDI. I do not rely on WOM as a movement predictor as it may indicate a direction but that might be due to one large amount sitting on one side. I'd rather have a spread of money behind the live odds.

I don't look at the win markets to identify movement in the place markets. I've yet to be convinced of a strong link between the two - a drifter in the win markets may still be a strong fancy for a place. If I saw movement in the win markets, I'd get on that, rather than the place markets as the tick movement is likely to be larger. Unfortunately, my skills at detecting movement in the win market are sadly lacking.

I have been trying to use the Racing Post site to identify runners that will potentially move. I've had a bit of success with that, but the jury is still out if I was honest.

Good luck with your trading on Friday.

Alistair