Hitting A Brick Wall

I just do not know what to do at the moment. I am having great difficulty moving forward in the place markets but whenever I try the win markets, I lose money faster than the Royal Mint can print it.

Today didn't start off too well in that I was down some £6 after the first 4 races. Not a lot, but it was the manner in which I was losing it that was cause for concern. I just couldn't seem to get on any moves. The market would collapse behind me as soon as I'd entered my opening position. I simply couldn't read the markets at all this afternoon. This, coupled with the fact that I wasn't particularly interested (and that interest was disappearing fast) made me decide to quit.

Having managed to turn £10 into £1000 in recent months, I have learned that sometimes the best thing to do is walk away. So I switched off the PC and watched some of the British Open instead.

I didn't return to the fray until after 4:00 when I managed to get myself into profit by nearly £12. I should've accepted that and taken the rest of the night off. Unfortunately, I seem to be making a habit of ignoring my own advice.

I've managed to get involved in one race this evening, and it bit me on the bottom so hard, I packed it in again.

There was no movement in the place markets tonight, so I thought I'd try the win markets yet again. The first couple of races were pretty non-eventful so I didn't get involved. The 6:40 was a different matter however.

I'd been keeping my eye on 'Titus Andronicus' which was trading as 3rd favourite at the time. The favourite was drifting slightly and the 2nd fav had stalled. 'Titus' had come in slightly and looked like it would continue so I backed it for £100 @ 4:30. As soon as my bet was matched, the market jumped against me big time. Why oh why does the market never seem to jump in my favour?

The jump was virtually instantaneous. I tried laying off at 5.10 but only £5.84 of my bet was matched. I got fully out at 5.50 for £72.77 and a guaranteed loss of £21.39.

So I'm down nearly £10 on the day. Again, not a huge amount in the grand scheme of things, but it's my head that is getting screwed up. I just do not understand the win markets at all. In the place markets I can predict, with some degree of confidence, when a jump is going to happen. In the win markets, I cannot - other than to say it will go against me. I CAN guarantee that.

I am feeling somewhat demoralised at the moment. I am not making the headway in the place markets this month as I did in May and June. This is nothing to do with stake sizes. I haven't increased my stakes since the beginning of June. I think it is more fundamental than that. Something has changed in the way I'm trying to trade the place markets. Something that just isn't working.

This lack of progress has led me to think that I should be in the win markets. Yet time and time again I mess those up. Each time I venture there, I come away more demoralised than before making me less and less willing to go back there again.

At the moment, I am at a bit of a loss as to how I knock down this metaphoric brick wall. That in itself is badly effecting my trading.


leonthefixer said...

Mate keep your chin up, maybe a break is needed?

I went over my video of that race and the thing that I spotted was that the horse did not go to 4.3! Now this tells me one thing in my mind, you are getting involved in the win markets far too early. My video started 5minutes and 18 seconds before the offcial off time. I could see that the horse had been as low as 4.3, I could even see you bet I think.

My advice would be to not touch the market until 5 minutes before the off. I think your bet was placed around 6 to 6 and a half minutes before the off from the graph. At 5.18 before the off £112k had been traded. There was just £195 wanting to back the horse across the three prices and just £256 to lay it across the three prices. My first trade in the market was not until 30 seconds before the off by which time £256k had been traded and there was about a thousand on each horse wanting to back and lay and the average amount being traded was about the same as my stake. When you got involved the average amount being matched on your horse was about £25! 4 times your stake! I don't want it to seem as though I am having a go but it seems you are getting involved in the market to early before any money comes into the market and as such the price movements are very eratic and therefore predicting price movements is near impossible. Some can do it don't get me wrong but I can't. I won't even look at a race until 5 mins before the off unless of course it is a big race for example a group 1.

Hope things go better tomorrow. Catch you on MSN and will chat to you more about it then.

Alistair said...

Hi Leon,

I've just checked my account and sure enough, I entered the market at 6:33. It's not unusual for me to enter the place market at that time but as you say, somewhat dangerous to do so in the win market.

Something else to take on board. Cheers.


JC said...

Hi, I started since just a couple of weeks ago trying to trade the races like you and so many others do, and I'm every bit as frustrated as you now because almost every time I enter a market, it just goes the other way, and Im always trying to cut losses. I just dont get it right most of the time and when I do, I only manage to get 1 tick or 2... I feel like a fool so at least you're not alone. Anyway if u can share some recommendations for a novice trader, I'd be thankful.

Great blog! Hope u have better days ahead, cheers


The final furlong said...

Hi Alistair,

Yeah i would echo Leon's comments, when i have tried to trade the horses i would enter in no more than five minutes before the off time as the most money and activity happens close to the race off time, if as Leon says the markets are erratic the price swings are going to be big and fast and obviously if you are on it great but if not a big sting is going to happen.
Try not to let it get you down and look for the hardest thing ' a cold heart and no emotion'
easier said than done i know.

Alistair said...

Hi guys and thanks for the comments.

JC: I do not feel I am experienced or successful enough to impart any bits of wisdom - if I had any. The only thing that I'd say, as would every trader, is protect your bank at all costs. If that means walking away, then do so. The hardest thing in this game is overcoming the doubts in one's mind. I'm still battling with those.

TFF: My biggest problem is I'm going into the win markets with the mindset of the place markets. I'm reluctant to leave the place markets as I do make money there and when I go to the win markets I lose it. However, the win markets are the place to be if I want to progress, unless I can find some other angle within the place markets. The problem of course is that spending time learning the win markets means I'm not earning anything in the place markets.

Decisions, decisions.

Thanks again for the comments chaps.