Normal Service Has Been Resumed

Today's Results:
Horse Racing... 4.2% profit. New bank... £891.15

After a very poor last four days where I've barely managed a profit of £35, I made that today to put me firmly back on track - despite losing £19 in lost trades.

One of the things I've been looking at recently, is my staking levels. I've noticed that I tend to lose more trades when my staking levels are higher. It seems that I may be hitting the limit of what the market, and my style of trading will take. I tend to lump it all in at once. However, it may be that I'm getting to the point where the market cannot support me, making it difficult to trade out if there's a reverse.

I'll look into changing my methods so that I submit lots of smaller bids to see if that helps. An experiment for another day. In the mean time, I've lowered my staking a bit, which certainly worked today.

Another thing I've noticed is that I seem to be concentrating more and more on horses that are likely to come in. This is a major shift for me - and I'm not sure when or why I changed. I've always found it easier to spot drifters, so why the alteration? It may be a natural result of me trying to use the Racing Post site to identify runners that are likely to move in the market. By definition, the RP will flag those runners that are likely to do well in the race and will consequently be well backed. I need to look into this as I have been missing some big drifts of late because I'm too busy concentrating on a runner that I'm expecting to come in.

Today's result was spoiled by two losing trades of just under £8 each. The first was a failed attempt at trying something new. Actually, that's not entirely accurate. It did succeed, but I'd lost my bottle beforehand and traded out for a loss. Ho! Hum!

The other was all due to a cup of tea. I'm sure I've mentioned this before, and it may well be anecdotal as I don't record these things, but it is remarkable how often I mess up a trade in the race immediately after fetching myself some refreshment. It's as if this simple process switches my brain off of 5-10 mins. Perhaps I should either not trade these races at all, or make up a flask at the start of the session and have that with me throughout. Bizarre!

I traded 30 races today, scratching 9 of them and losing 4 for a disappointing £19. That adds another 4.2% to the pot and brings it tantalisingly close to the £900 mark. Hopefully that will be passed tomorrow with flying colours.

4 comments:

Pete Thunder said...

"Horse Racing... 4.2% loss" or profit? you bank seems to have grown, so i take it is a typo...
Besides, great to see you back on track!

Alistair said...

Oooops! Well spotted Pete. A case of copying and pasting the wrong thing!

It was most definitely a profit. All sorted now. Ta.

Anonymous said...

Alistair,
Fantastic stuff!! Congratulations!!
I am marvelling at your discipline. During the month or two I have been following your blog I have lost my discipline badly on a few occasions and I am working hard to be able to accept small losses rather than take a chance on the outcome of a race when my trade has left me exposed!

Your blog interests me more than most of the blogs out there because like me you are working and have kids. I think it is much easier to lose discipline when time is tight! Sometimes I will go to my PC knowing that I only have time to get involved in one or two races. Something in me says I HAVE TO COME AWAY WITH A PROFIT. If it turns against me I can very easily take a stupid chance and it is this that I am working on although it seems to be taking me a long time to learn this lesson.

I am not trading on individual runners using a ladder interface. I did this for a while and it didn't work for me. I then tried doing this in the place markets like you but it was still driving me mad and I had to stop to retain my sanity. I have for several months now been using the Bet Angel Bookmaking and Dutching facility. I am usually laying the whole field. When a runner lengthens before I am matched I increase the odds I am willing to accept on that runner and if necessary back sufficiently to cover a red figure.

I have had long periods of success doing this but I still cannot completely trust myself as I have lost my profits by 'chancing it' when I end up with a bad book. The reason I continue is that I absolutely know this approach works if I can accept occasional even regular modest losses rather than hoping that the horse with a red figure against it doesn't win the race! I don't think many people use the bookmaking/dutching facilities, certainly not on all the runners! It does work - discipline is the issue.

Interesting point about profits being harder to come by when stakes are increased. It had me thinking and makes me consider reducing stakes somewhat. If we see that £500,000 has been matched in a market we think that is a liquid market and maybe it is. However, the £500k that has been matched has nothing to do whatsoever with the current price of the runners and absolutely nothing to do with which way those prices will move in the next few seconds or whatever. I may lay the field to a total stake of £500. Tiny in terms of the size of the market BUT maybe significant in terms of influence on the price of some of the runners at the sharp end where the buying and selling is taking place? Are my modest stakes potentially influensing the movement of prices? Yes I think they often are.

Alistair, when I see you increasing your bank by something like 9000% (£10 to £900)my mind is absolutely blown! I then think what if you had started with £1,000 instead of £10? Well, you would have been having huge influence on the prices of your selections and needless to say they would mostly have been moving against you! Basically it wouldn't work for either of us.

So....there is a happy medium where we can trade under the radar so we can have a real second income but it maybe with regular success using modest stakes.

Your blog is a real inspiration to me and whilst we usee different methods it is a daily reminder to me that regular income can be achieved on Betfair!

Here's to discipline!!

Dave.

Alistair said...

Thanks very much Dave for your kind comments. It's not too often I am called an 'inspiration'.

As I use BinarSoft BDI, I am actually stuck with using a ladder. I have used Bet Angel in the past, but didn't get on with it. That's more to do with my inability to trade at that time rather than the software. I never tried the Bookmaking facility. I always though it was pretty risky if one or two horses weren't matched.

Regarding discipline, I think it is the single most important characteristic to have as a trader. Let that go out the window and you're scuppered. As you'll see with my posting for today (once I get it up) I've needed discipline in buckets today.

Not the best of days for me so far.

Good luck with your trading.

Alistair