Monopoly Anyone?

I should play the famous board game more often as lately I have been picking up so many 'Get Out Of Jail Free' cards it's unbelievable.

Just like the past few days, I traded steadily if not spectacularly, slowly building the profits until throwing it all away again. On this occasion, it only took 50 minutes before the wheels fell off the bus.

I managed profits in the first 4 races and things were looking quite good for the day. Come the 3:00 however, I embarked on a run of four losing races that wiped out all those gains and put me in the red. I was disgusted with myself, frustrated and I'm afraid I lost a bit of discipline.

I've said many times on this blog that I will not bet with money I haven't won that day. The idea being that I can fund any bets I may wish to do by the profits I make that day from trading the horses. My intention was to primarily apply that to any bets I may have on the footy, as that's where I'm likely to have a punt if I'm having one at all. However, the theory applies to anything I do, including in-running hedging on the horses.

This is where I lost my discipline as I hadn't won anything, but I decided to stick a fiver on 'Acquifer' in the 4:20 at Lingfield as tipped by Graeme over at The Experiment. Yes I know, I was chasing my losses, but I felt I could afford another fiver (or tenner as it turned out).

I got on at 15.0 a few minutes before the off, then placed a 'keep' lay at 3.76 to give me a guaranteed profit of £15. As the start of the race approached, it drifted out to 23.0, so I stuck another £5 on at those odds. The race jumped before I could cancel the lay at 3.76. As soon as the market reopened I did just that and placed a new lay at 7.60 for £25 to guarantee myself £15 before commission, assuming it was matched. It was, shortly after, with the odds reaching 5.00ish before drifting out again.

And there's my 'Get Out Of Jail Free' card. If it hadn't drifted pre-off, I wouldn't have been tempted to put another £5 on it and consequently wouldn't have altered the closing lay. As a result, I would've lost a fiver. About time the gambling gods gave me a break!

So, there was me, a much happier chappie thanks to Graeme rather than my trading skills. That wasn't the end of the story though, as this win, gave me the boost I need to actually put in some decent trades before the end of play at 5:10.

This evening was, in between earning a bit more in the place markets, spent looking at hedging in the win markets sparked by a discussion that took place in the chat room last night. Already the room has seen some interesting thoughts banded about, so thanks to those who have been taking part.

Anyway, early days with the idea, but this evening's monitoring, coupled with a handful of races I looked at this afternoon has seen a 100% success rate - albeit on paper. I'll continue to monitor it for a while, but it certainly shows promise if today's results are anything to go by.

I 'traded' (LOL) 20 races today, scratching 6 and losing 4 at a cost of £12, but thanks in the main to Graeme, I came away with a £24.64 profit on the day. Cheers mate.

2 comments:

Graeme Dand said...

Hi mate.

As you know, I’m a fan of doing this sort of thing but you need to make sure you get the lay price correct. I cringed when I saw your lay at 3.76 as it was asking for a bit much. Backing at 15 and laying at this sort of price is like trying to back a winner at 3/1!

Being honest, the horse would have had to have run very well to get down to that price. You’d as well back it to place!

However, by backing again and changing your lay, you effectively had £10 on at 6/4. This is much more like it….

As I said on the blog, 4 of the 5 so far have won at Evs effectively if you laid at half the price, so you’d be doing well. Obviously, you can try to squeeze that Evs upwards to 6/4 like you did yesterday and it will increase your profits.

However, I wouldn’t recommend a lay at 3.76 when backing at 15 as you are asking for about 3/1 which IMO, is too high.

I’d always try to think about this strategy is odds terms when you implement it. I always do and it works for me! Also, don’t be afraid to leave different lays to maximise profits. Hence, get £5 back 2 points lower, another £3 4 points lower, £10 6 points lower etc. By using a scaling method like Andrew does, you’ll very rarely lose all of your bet and when it runs well (which mines mostly should!), you’d make much more.

As you know, I’m a great fan of experimenting with things and even reading your post last night, I can see the small buzz you are getting from playing about with this. Don’t go wild and continue to paper play but as you say, boosting your profits by a little in races can give you more confidence to trade a bit more freely and thus you’ll trade better IMO.

Graeme

Alistair said...

Thanks as ever for the feedback Graeme.

I couldn't agree more regarding the 3.76 lay. As I said in my original post, I lost my discipline and it was a straight forward punt, nothing more, nothing less. Fortunately, I came to my senses somewhat when I saw the price had drifted. Hence the reason for reducing the spread to get my £15 profit, albeit it was still a gamble.

The intention, if there was one, would've been to get myself back into the black after that run of losing trades. If I'd followed that plan, I wouldn't have needed to look for £15. Rather, less than half that would've sufficed. I got lucky with what was in effect a 2.50 shot in the end.

The next time I do it, it will be much more considered.

Alistair