Oxford Utd v Cambridge Utd In-Running

I'm not a great lover of cup matches when it comes to betting. There's just far too many unknowns for my liking, particularly with big teams often putting out their reserves for such games.

However for tonight, there's an interesting tie down in the Conference. The only caveat is one of liquidity. I suspect most money this evening, whether you go to Betfair or Betdaq, will be found in those cup matches involving Premiership sides.

The match at Oxford interests me due in part to the head-to-head record and partly the current scoring record of both teams.

These teams have met 20 times going back to 1991. Of those matches, 16 of them have been over 1.5 goals. That's 80%, equivalent to 1.25 in decimal odds. All of the past 10 meetings between the sides - going back to 2001- have had 2 or more goals.

The scoring record this season has seen 15 goals at Oxford's 5 home games and 12 at Cambridge's 5 away games.

Given this, I think the 1.38 available pre-ko for the over 1.5 goals has got to be value. The only issue with my normal plan is that 9 out the 15 goals at Oxford and 7 of the 12 goals on Cambridge's travels, have been scored in the first half. As a result, I won't be surprised to see an early goal in this game.

In addition, with 6 of the past 10 meetings having 3 or more goals the 2.17 available for the over 2.5 goals should also be considered, though in all honesty, I'll probably leave it alone.

UPDATE @ 22:17 - The game finished 3-1, but Oxford's first goal, scored in 4 minutes, put paid to any involvement by me.

3 comments:

Cassini said...

Alistair - not picking on you (honest) but what the heck does the outcome of the last ten meetings between Oxford and Cambridge have to do with today's game? I've never understood this logic. If the last ten meetings were all this month, then ok, but some of those games must have been many years ago. Back in their League days in fact!

Loocie said...

Hi Alistair,

nice to see you trading football. It is not easy, but it is possible to make money with trading on football. Why don't you enter the market before kick off?
You can split your maximum stake into 2 parts: The first is for pre match and the the second is for inplay (Price Leveraging).
Keep up your good selections on the matches!

All the best, Loocie

Drifter said...

Good to see you still trading Alistair. I have just started trading again but refuse to use Betfair now they have introduced this premium charge so am going to try to trade on Betdaq. I have started a new blog about this. http://betdaq-no-20percent-tax.blogspot.com/ Hope you can add it to your list.

Cheers Drifter