Pulling A Fast One

I managed to get a little trading in today, between spells of sorting my accounts out. I did a little scalping in the greyhounds markets and won a few pounds; a little scalping in the horse markets and lost a few pounds, and a number of attempts in the over 1.5 goals markets where all bets were scuppered by the early goal. Apologies for not posting my selections, but I was trying to squeeze them in whilst doing my accounts.

I did think I was on to a flyer though in the Spurs v Wigan match. I had though about laying Spurs in this game but for what ever reason decided against it. Pre-ko, Wigan were a very attractive 5.00 but again, I gave it a miss as my mind was focussed on other markets.

As I've said before, I do not have live pictures available to me while I'm trading and so I generally have one of the live score websites up at all times. The one a usually use is xscores.com, so when this flashed up that Wigan had gone 0-1 up I couldn't believe that Betdaq hadn't suspended the market. Wigan where still sitting there at 5.00 so I quickly stuck £10 on it.

Not long after, the market suspended and when it re-opened the odds were the same as before, but xscores.com had corrected itself and reset the scoreline back to 0-0. What a disappointment. I didn't manage to pull a fast one and immediately traded out for a loss of 28 pence. LOL!

Later on in the evening, and at the risk of 'after the eventing' I managed to get involved in the Racing Santander v Real Madrid match. I hadn't even realised it was on, so I had not carried out any analysis on it. Having done a bit more of my accounts, I loaded xscores again and noticed the half time score was 0-0. A quick check of the stats revealed the 18 of the last 20 meetings between these two had had 2 or more goals.

The current odds for over 1.5 goals was 2.3, so I quickly asked for £5 @ 2.50 and £5 @ 3.00. The odds didn't quite reach 3.00 before the first goal was scored and I was able to trade out for a free bet of around £4.70. This was won 15 mins later when Van Nistelrooy got Real's 2nd.

Just over £7 added to the pot, which I was quit happy with considering I didn't do that much trading today.

Tomorrow of course is the start of the 'Premium Charge'. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few of weeks. In particular, whether the liquidity at Betdaq will improve. I'll be at a client's tomorrow, so I won't be doing much trading in any case other than some soccer, potentially, in the evening, but I'll be doing that over at Betdaq any way.

5 comments:

Cassini said...

Regarding beating the suspension, I would say that if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. Trading without pictures is very dangerous so play with small stakes only. Also, I'd be interested to know why you think that the price on 1.5 goals will be value after x number of minutes rather than at kick-off? I've studied these over/under markets for a long while looking for an edge, but they are remarkably efficient. http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2008/06/in-play-overunder-futility.html

Alistair said...

Hi Cassini, and thanks for popping by.

Yes, I agree it was too good to be true, but it was worth a shot in my view. It only cost me 28p afterall.

I only get involved in over 1.5 goals markets if I deem the odds to be value pre-ko. I simply try to get a better return by looking for higher odds in-running. I'm not bothered if an early goal scuppers things as there will be another opportunity coming along soon enough.

Please be aware though that I do not trade the soccer markets without pictures. I take a position and gamble with what I am prepared to lose. I'm happy to trade out for a free bet when things go my way. Equally, I'm happy to let them ride if they're not. In other words, I do not have an exit strategy.

Indeed, last year when I looked at this, I did have an exit strategy and I got hacked off the number of times there was two late goals after I had got out. So now, it's more of a straight punt, with a little bit of hedging/trading if I feel like it.

Alistair

Cassini said...

So my question now is that if you find a market that you deem to be value pre-ko, why not back at that time? Use Kelly to calculate your stake and let the money come rolling in. It's hard enough to find value at this game, without risking losing the value for the sake of waiting for a teeny bit more. Incidentally if you're seeing a lot of early goals go in in the games you are watching, it tells me you definitely have an edge. Good luck.

Alistair said...

That's a good question cassini. A number of reasons really...

1. Lack of mental fortitude to handle prolonged losing runs. From experience, I know I have a problem with this, which is why I turned to trading.

2. Although I'm not trading these in the true sense of the word, I like to trade out for a profit, or at least a free bet, after the first goal. In those games where a goal isn't forthcoming until late in the 1st half or beyond, the odds don't drop far enough to give me a profit if I backed at pre-ko prices.

3. I do not know whether I have an edge or not, as I don't feel I have collated enough data as yet. I know from last year I had a high hit rate out of the 35 matches I picked. Only two of them were under 2 goals. I feel 35 matches is too small a sample.

4. It may also be a throwback to my gambling days when I was always very reluctant to bet on anything less than 1.70 irrespective if the available odds were value or not.

This strategy is very early in it's development and, in all likelihood, will change throughout the season. Whether I am getting the best out of it, I honestly do not know. Too early to say I think.

Thanks for you input as always. It has got me thinking about other aspects that I perhaps hadn't considered fully.

Alistair

Cassini said...

Alistair,

An interesting dichotomy there in your answers 1 and 4. You are averse to long losing runs, yet you are reluctant to back at less than 1.7!

Like you, I do not like long losing runs, but unlike you, I have no problem with backing at 1.7 or less if the bet represents value.

For me, it is all about value. If you could walk into a casino and get 1.6 at Roulette on numbers 1 to 24, would you turn it down because the price is too short?

What determines whether or not a price is too short is not the number itself, but its relationship to value.

Good luck.