Why Do I Keep Doing That?

I had a two moments of madness today that completely spoiled my horse racing returns.

I was quite comfortable today, playing a slow and steady game building the profits nicely. I had a couple of small blips early on, but in general, my trading was consistently in the right direction. With three races to go, I was heading for a £20+ afternoon which I would've been quietly satisfied with.

Since I started trading horses back in Feb, I've always tended to try and trade every race. Indeed, the temptation to do so in order to 'earn' another few pounds is very difficult to resist. Recently however, I've been trying to be more selective with the races I enter in an attempt to both pick the ones with decent movement that I can jump on, as well as avoid those that are likely to see me lose.

I obviously haven't mastered the selection process yet as I jumped on wholly inappropriate runners in both the 5:05 and the 5:20 this afternoon. I won't bother going into details, but both those races were screaming at me to stay away - but I didn't. As a result, I wiped out all the gains I'd made throughout the afternoon and suddenly found myself in the red.

Fortunately, I managed to compose myself and put in a decent trade in the last which brought me back into profit for the day - just. So yet again, through carelessness on my part, I end up with a tiny profit from my exertions in the horse markets. I ask again, why do I keep doing that? Answers on a postcard please...

With the afternoon's disappointment behind me, I moved on to the York v Mansfield match in the hope of redeeming myself somewhat.

One of my favourite soccer markets is the over 1.5 goals. I first of all look to see what would be value odds for the over 1.5 goals. I then try to build in additional value by looking for higher odds in-running.

Generally, I place 4-5 bets in ever increasing odds and wait for them to be matched. After that, I simply wait for a goal. Once the first goal is scored, I usually trade out, though not always. Sometimes I just let it run.

Take the match tonight for example. I placed bets at 1.6, 1.75, 2.00 and 4.00. The first goal was scored not long after the second bet was matched. I then traded out for a guaranteed profit of more than a fiver. As I mentioned to the guys in the chat room, as soon as I traded out, I regretted it. I felt strongly there'd be another and I should've let it run. Easily said with hindsight of course.

So a reasonable return for a £15 bet and the day looks a little better than it did at 5:20 this afternoon.

1 comment:

Anthony said...

I don't think there's any coincidence in that your 2 bad decisions came within 15 minutes of each other and pretty much in the last 2 races of the day. The 1st possible reason is that you were a little mentally tired and the 2nd that you were starting to feel invincible. Probably both. Just look out for it in the future and your profits will improve. Well done on the footy, it keeps your winning sequence looking good.