Momentum Waning?

I'm a pretty small player in the grand scheme of things, yet even I have been hit but the now infamous premium charge. No money has been withdrawn from my account as yet, but the charge is being applied to my 'allowance'.

Because it hasn't directly hit me in the pocket yet, and won't do for 3-4 months, I've not talked about it much. There's more than enough been said about it by those directly involved. That is not to say I do not support a move to Betdaq. Indeed, I'm already doing all my football betting/trading over there. Once Betdaq Trader has a ladder interface, I'll be there for the horses as well.

However, I'm becoming more and more concerned that any mass exodus is losing what momentum it had.

I've felt from the beginning that the people to be hit the hardest by this charge, are not the high rollers, but the smaller players. Someone who regularly earns £3K-£5K per week, might justifiably feel aggrieved at having to pay an extra 20%-25%, but let's face it, they'll still be able to maintain a very comfortable living with what's left. The little guy on the other hand who, like myself, earns £75-£150 per week is going to be faced with the situation where trading simply might not be worth the effort.

The high rollers currently cannot afford to move over to Betdaq which, in itself is making other punters reluctant to move. Don't get me wrong. Liquidity is improving no end in the land of purple, but it is largely due to the valiant efforts of smaller traders like Drifter and LeonTheFixer, to name but two, as they desperately try to maintain their income whilst avoiding the premium charge.

To illustrate the point, one only needs to take a look at recent posts on the Bet Angel Blog. Here we have Peter Webb posting screen shots of some excellent daily results. Over £2K on the 18th Oct.

I mean no disrespect to Peter, but posting such images of returns earned on Betfair is hardly going to encourage users to leave for another place. It would be great, and much more beneficial, if the likes of Peter posted regular results obtained on Betdaq.

It may be pure conjecture on my part, but the urgency and enthusiasm that Bet Angel showed a few weeks ago in getting the Betdaq ball rolling seems to have disappeared. Yes they made a sterling effort to get Bet Angel for Betdaq out so quickly, but I just have nagging doubts. Indeed, believers in conspiracy theory may suspect that some sort of deal has been done between BA and BF.

If I'm way off base, then I apologise unreservedly to Peter and his team, but it seems to me that Betfair will remain the home of most, if not all high rollers for some time to come. This may very well turn out to be permanent and the dream of some real competition in the exchange business may be just that. A dream - and that will be a sad day for the rest of us.

Now, on a brighter note, I won £43 today. Woohoo!

It was a very difficult day having started off extremely slowly. I couldn't get going at all and, come lunch time, had barely broken into the teens. To make matters worse, I lost more or less half of this immediately upon my return. I spent the rest of the afternoon taking two steps forward, one step back, gradually building the profit. However, it wasn't until the evening session that things started to come together for me and I eventually got into the 40s.

My long term Udinese trade was a disappointment. Far from coming in, it actually drifted before kick off and I was forced to trade out for a small loss. Unfortunately, I didn't have the courage of my convictions to put a smaller bet on them to win as I indicated in my earlier post. As expected they won their match and I missed yet another opportunity on the football.

Not to worry though. A tidy profit for the day with October picking up nicely after a slow start.


Anonymous said...

Good post mate - a thought provoking one and hopefully people will make a bit more effort - it does seem the momentum is dropping and people are just saying its no good over there.

Well as I think I have shown that is rubbish! I can't trade as I did on BF but have adapted and have actually found several new opportunites. People need to get off their arses and make the move and stop moaning about the charges - they are here to stay and no doubt get higher so stop moaning and make the move.

I know I am a bit like Pot, Kettle and Black after a recent post by me about my Betdaq experiences but I have down a classic Labour reversal - You can turn over large amounts no problem on Betdaq.

Lets hope Peter is reading and posts a Betdaq profit up on his blog now!


Alistair said...

Cheers Leon,

I hope I am way off beam here. All we can do is continue to do our bit, no matter how small, and hopefully, in time we'll see a more long term move to Betdaq.