Oops! I Spoke Too Soon

So much for reaching the £2K mark the other day. Today I had a nightmare which saw me back below that figure.

Things started to go awry yesterday, when I was caught badly on one dog race that wiped 75% of my gains. I finished the day with less than a fiver in profit. I was so disgusted that I didn't bother posting yesterday, for which I apologise.

That theme carried on today, although everything started off reasonably well. I was edging towards £20 profit for the first session on the dogs when, in the 13:12, I threw over £11 away in the one trade. I completely misread the market and got caught badly. Of course, it would be after I raised my stakes as well. Typical!

I endeavoured to carry on, but I then managed to lose another £2 soon after, so I packed it in after throwing my rattle out the pram. I was virtually back to square one and felt an extended break would do me good.

I returned to the fray a couple of hours later but lost another £18 on one of the first races I entered - this time on the horses. After throwing the rest of my toys out the pram, I switched off. My head clearly wasn't with it.

After another prolonged break and a significant effort to calm myself down, I set about trying to limit the damage. I managed to recover about a third of my losses when I has bitten on the rear by a dog, yet again. This time I said goodbye to nearly £8. If only I had had some toys left.....

So I've wound up some £18 down on the day after what had started to look like being a good day. Losing trades of £11, £18, and £8 may not seem that much, but when one considers the size of my stake (£60 for the nags and £30-£60 for the dogs) one should quickly appreciate how bad those trades were.

I looked to retrieving some of those losses on the over 1.5 goals market of the Bochum v Monchengladbach match but my bet wasn't matched before the 1st goal on the half hour mark.

These trades really sum up the way I've been feeling about my trading for a while. As I was commenting in the chat room, I'm having great difficulty in stepping up a gear. Whenever I try to do so, I seem to hit a brick wall or worse still, go backwards. This certainly seems to have happened with regard to the greyhounds this month.

I find myself seriously contemplating giving up this trading lark, at least in it's current form. I'm spending long hours in front of my PC trying to trade the dog and horse markets for pretty scant reward just now. Yes, the extra money is welcome, but I could earn more packing shelves in B&Q. At least I'd get the opportunity to get out the house and meet people. I am really not sure that trading at this level is worth it.

I look at many blogs and see how well other traders seem to be doing. I honestly cannot see me ever getting to that level. Even regularly making £50/per is way beyond me just now, yet way back in June, that was looking like a distinct possibility.

Regulars will know all too well that I tend to be too hard on myself. Self-critical is my middle name. I certainly feel myself sinking into a crisis of confidence again. This hasn't been brought on solely by today's poor result. Rather it's a combination of not only my inability to push on, but my failure to even maintain the results I was getting last month.

As ever, I just need to plow my way through it and hope that things turn a corner soon.


John said...

Looking at other blogs and putting yourself down because you cannot match their success is not the way to go. The reason I don’t post figures on my blog is because a) at the end of the day nobody cares how much I won/lost and b) trying to keep up with the Jones’ is a sure way to lose.

Everyone has a slightly different method and without knowing stake sizes you cannot possibly compare results. You just need to find what’s right for you and try to develop whatever strategy/method you use. It takes time and although you may make more from a ‘normal job’ right now, think about the long run. If you can make small returns now and develop that over a few years you could, after slowly raising stakes, end up with trading paying a much higher wage than B&Q. If you don’t want to work that hard at it then stacking shelves is for you.

Your last sentence says a lot - you shouldn’t have to hope. Yes luck plays a role but if you truly have a method of trading which a positive expectation you should feel comfortable with losses because you know at the end of the week / month / year you will be in profit. I know when a trading method will not work as soon as I start to hope my luck changes.

All the best
John @ Flutterfly.co.uk

Cassini said...

Alistair, when I started on Betfair in 2004, it was with £98.50. I spent a year and a half playing with small stakes, building my balance up, losing it down until September 2005 and I had £21.40 in my account. Then I found an edge, an approach that worked, not all the time, but more often than not. I eliminated my losing habits, and since 2006, with discipline, have averaged £87.24 a day. My point is that it CAN be done. Don't expect it to come quickly or easily though - I have put in many hours trying different ideas and markets. You will have to also. I'm not sure where your edge is with dogs (it seems like pure gambling to me which will not pay in the long-term) but you seem to be able to pick the football overs ok, even if greeed sees you wait too long! Find out what works, build up slowly, and see where it takes you. Good luck.

Alistair said...

Hi guys, and thanks for the comments.

The reason I castigate myself and publicly 'put myself down' is purely for my benefit. It helps me get the day's frustrations off my chest in a somewhat cathartic way. It's one of the many reasons I started a blog in the first place and from that point of view is a wholly selfish and self-centered exercise.

As a result of this, I'd encourage readers not to read into my self-critical ramblings too much.

Cassini, I not sure why you feel that my scalping of the dog markets is 'pure gambling'. I assume from this that scalping any market would also be classed in the same way. That's not a view I'd agree with.

Anyway, thanks again guys for taking the time to comment. This particular mini-crisis (one of many no doubt) has come, gone and is forgotten.


Cassini said...

I say that scalping is gambling, because you are at the mercy of the market and in the case of dogs, of people who have inside knowledge. The downside is always much greater than the upside with scalping, though I agree that there are techniques you can use to minimise any losses, but sooner or later you will get caught out.