Time For A Break

Over recent day and weeks, I have felt my discipline slip and my mind not focussing on trading. I've had a number of things on the go in my life of late which are causing 'distractions'. I am aware that I have been drifting into a gambling mindset rather than a trading one and this morning saw the best example of that.

I acted on a tip by a forum member in a site I frequent, namely SoccerLotto, He was recommending to back Sam Querrey to beat Marcos Baghdatis.

With this in mind, and seeing that Querrey was serving first I decided to back him once the match went in-play for £100 with a view to laying him off for a £10 profit. Within 20 secs of placing the trade, his odds shot out as Baghdatis took the first game and I was looking at a £50 loss.

I waited for a couple of games to see if Querrey could break him back but no, so I took the hit and got out for a loss of £46. I do not have the nerves to see if he'll fight back.

I'm annoyed with myself for this lapse. Not so much for the losing trade itself, but for diving into a market I know little about based on the recommendation of someone I know to have a good record. I went in with no plan, no knowledge and no sense. A pure gamble.

And as I type this, I see that Querrey has fought back and my trade out position would have been taken. I'm so used to the fast paced pre-race markets where trades are completed in seconds that I clearly cannot handle the the stress required to hold one's position in a tennis match.

I need to take a break, not just because I'm feel myself slipping into a gambling mindset, but because I am frustrated. I haven't been able to set a path for myself with regard to where my trading is going. I'm spending long hours in front of my PC and it is having a detrimental effect on my domestic life. I currently feel I need to spend those hours in order to build up any sort of profit.

My trading has clearly plateaued and that is a worry in itself. Hopefully a break will do me good.


Drifter said...

Probably a wise decision if that is how you are feeling. I know when I took a long break it gave me time to focus and sort out my head so I could trade again. I am definately trading better now because of the break.

Trading is mentally very tiring and a break every now and again is definately recommended.

Enjoy the break


Alistair said...

Cheers Drifter,

I certainly feel pretty drained so a few days of will be welcome. Hopefully I won't be off quite as long as you were though. LOL.

For personal reasons, this time of the year is always difficult for me but I should be back within the week.


Graeme Dand said...

Hi Ali.

I hope things are well mate.

I’ve been reading your blog daily as usual and as always, it’s an interesting read! I even thought about looking at the dogs since the evenings suit me better but I thankfully managed to reign myself back! 

I was laughing to myself when I read this post as I’m not sure what’s happened but you seem like a gambler in a trader’s body now…..One of the things that differentiated you from me was the fact you were able to control your gambling instincts much more than me. I’ve struggled all year with it but with a little spell of punting and not doing great before I resorted to trading, I seem cured and can’t wait to get back to trading and trying out different strategies again!

One of the things I don’t get if I’m honest is why you’d ever trade a tennis match the way you traded that game. Basically, tennis is one of the sports where the market goes wild and over-adjusts for what’s happening as far as I can see and it’s the sort of thing that the tennis pros like Matt base their strategy on.

In my view, to gamble £100 and take a £46 loss isn’t the best thing I’ve heard of. If the guy was a good bet at the start of the game to win, did he suddenly become a bad bet when he lost the first set? I’m guessing he probably started odds on and went odds against and I would have been inclined to back him again if anything.as he drifted as he must have been a better bet….

In a way, I’m being slightly tongue in cheek mate but it does prove the point that we shouldn’t dabble in other sports without knowing what we are doing! I’ve now watched you do dogs, football and a tennis game and from what I can see, you won’t try to adopt a trading strategy for the win market in the horse-racing which interests me.

Obviously, I’m about to start looking at trading again in depth and as usual, I have a million ideas floating around in my mind about things to try out but I was wondering where you had got to with the win markets? Have you given up trying to trade them for good?

Anyway mate, great read as usual and keep up the blog. I got around to finally posting again on mines and hopefully I’ll catch up with you soon in the chat room or something.


Alistair said...

Hi Graeme

Many thanks for popping by and leaving a comment. Good to hear from you after all this time. I'm sorry to see that your 'venture' hasn't gone as well as you hoped. I'm sure you'll find someway of putting your talents to good use.

To answer you points on the tennis 'bet'. It was simply an aberration. As I said in my post, I went in there without proper preparation and planning expecting Querrey to win the first game by which time my trade would have won. When he didn't and the odds shot out at a frightening rate, I panicked and baled out. Just not used to waiting and holding a position, which if I had done for 20 mins, I would have been fine.

You're absolutely right, when the odds did move out I could have piled in for more. I backed him at 1.93. After the first few games, he was trading nearer 6.00 before fighting back and winning the first set at which point he was 1.35 ish if memory serves me correctly.

The fact of the matter is I was ill prepared for venturing into this market, brought on by the state of my mind at the time. I've hinted on here previously that I've suffered depression in the past. No big deal, I cope with it, but when I'm down my judgment has been know to be suspect.

For personal reasons, the October mid-term break is a bad time for me, as is Christmas, which is likely to be the reason for my somewhat rash behaviour on the betting front.

I'm a lot better now though.


Graeme Dand said...

Hi Ali.

Don't worry about judgement being poor at times mate. My judgement is very poor and probably much worse than yours when things aren't going my way! I put it down to the fact we're not robots and I live with it.

I wasn't having a dig re. the tennis bet. I've gambled away more money than any of the two of us this year on stupid trades and stupid bets but it did seem like you were a little ill-prepared for the trading part of it.

As you know, I've nothing against gambling at all and I probably do it too much but at times, having a punt is fine on something that's value like this tennis guy probably was. However, you need to separate the punt from your trading mindset and I've struggled all year with that as you know.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy the break and look forward to catching up with you at some point soon.