The Experiment Starts

Today, was my first day putting in a concerted effort in the horse win markets. It did not go well, but more of that later.

The day started with the late morning session on the dogs. Unfortunately, this being Saturday, it lived up to it's reputation of being a poor day for me. I struggled to get anywhere in these markets today, and, with the horse racing starting earlier and earlier as the days shorten, the markets dried up pretty quickly.

I tried the greyhounds again later in the evening, but I was still struggling and in the end, I came away with a small loss.

After an early lunch, I spent some time looking at some football possibilities. I decided to try a straight treble in the over 1.5 goals markets with a view to doubling my stake. I narrowed it down to the matches at Cardiff, Juventus and Marseille giving combined odds of 2.40. However, when I went to place this bet on Betdaq, although the individual odds were as advertised, I was only offered odds of 2.22 for the treble so I didn't place the bet and I didn't have time to place it with a bookie.

You won't be surprised to learn that the treble would have been successful. Typical! I've posted a question on the Betdaq forum, in the new 'Ask Betdaq' section, asking them to explain. There's no point in placing multiples on there if they are going to give a raw deal like this.

I also had a straight punt on Montrose to beat Stenhousemuir at home. Unfortunately, they were stuffed so that failed miserably.

So on to the horses...

I've decided to spend November trying to get to grips with the horse win markets. If today is anything to go by, it is going to be a long slog.

Every time I opened my position the market would reverse and I'd immediately come out for a 1 tick loss. No big deal. Annoyingly, having got out, it would immediately double back and I could have attained a 2, 3 or 4 tick profit. I'd go back in looking for a tick, and the same thing would happen. Time and time and time again the same thing occurred until it came to the point where I decided not to get out immediately and wait a bit longer for it to go back in my favour.

Well, I'm sure you can guess what happened. Did it do an about turn as it had countless times before and give me a profit? The hell it did! Instead of a 1 tick loss, it was a 4,5 or 6 tick loss. Every time I tried this, the same thing happened. Talk about frustrating!

I didn't have a single winning trade today in those markets. Still, I shall persevere with them as it is the only way I'm going to be able to step up a gear, as far as I can see.

I returned to the football markets in the evening. Specifically I went into the Juventus v Roma match with a view to trading the over 2.5 goals market. As I've mentioned before, I've still not resolved my trading/betting strategies for football, and this match was no different.

I placed bets at odds of 2.4 and again at 2.75 with another waiting at 4.00. The third of these wasn't matched before the first goal was scored. I traded out after that having only managed to guarantee myself £1. Shortly afterwards, the second goal was scored and I missed out on a reasonable return.

So, all in all, not a particularly successful day. It was only saved by the final part of a matched bet I'd been doing and as a result, I managed to scrape into profit on the day.

I'm not sure how much trading I'll get done tomorrow what with family visits and the finale of the F1 season. Here's hoping Lewis Hamilton can keep his head together and not throw it away like he did last year.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Alistair,
Interested to read your trading experience on Betdaq yesterday.
I have concluded that the extreme volatility in the horse race markets makes trading a complete lottery. WOM and charts seem to have no relevance and you might as well toss a coin to decide which side to open a trade.
There's not enough 'genuine' money in the markets, and spoofers are manipulating price movements to their hearts content.
It would be pure luck to trade through an afternoons racing and finish in profit.
best wishes
roger

Alistair said...

Hi Roger, thanks for popping by.

I'm sorry, perhaps I didn't make it clear. As far as trading horses and dogs, I'm still using Betfair.

Judging by my efforts of the past two days, the sooner I can start trading on the volatile markets of Betdaq with a ladder interface the happier I will be.

Alistair

Anonymous said...

It's a tough time of year to start on the horses. The markets are pretty weak at this time of the year and lower quailty racing generally means less opportunity. So don't get too down if you are finding it tough.

Alistair said...

Hi anonymous,

Strangely, my strength lies in weak markets as demonstrated with my success in the place and greyhound markets. However, they behave completely differently to these win markets which I am finding difficult to get into.

I'll get there in the end though, I hope.

Alistair