The Lose Markets

I think I'll make a complaint under the Trades Description Act. Quite clearly, Betfair should not be calling these markets, 'win' markets as I do anything but win.

Today was worse than ever, if that's possible. So much so that I stopped after the 2:30 race having thrown away £15 over 8 races with a profit in only two of them.

If things carry on like this, I won't be continuing this experiment much past the weekend, never mind the whole month. Indeed, I think I might need to curtail this trial anyway as I am beginning to think that I am at a severe disadvantage using BinarySoft BDI. At least in these markets anyway.

As much as I like the software, there are somethings I've always hated about it.

Like most trading software, it has the ability to automatically put in closing trades at a predefined tick offset as the initial bet is matched, or partially matched; it can kill a bet, or what remains of it after a specified time has elapsed; and of course it can put in a stop loss as well.

The problem with this is the lack of a global settings facility where these can be specified in advance so that all one needs to worry about is clicking on the ladder and all these things are taken care of. Instead, when the facility is switched on, clicking in the ladder does not immediately enter one's bet into the market but displays a dialog of which the following image is an example:

Here one can specify a tick offset as well as how that offset will be entered into the market. Every time, a bet is placed via the ladder, this dialog pops up. Although it retains the relevant settings until they are changed again, the very process of having to confirm the dialog causes a potentially expensive delay in the bet submission process.

I have never used it much in the past as it is pointless doing so in the volatile and jumpy markets that I usually frequent. However, I thought I'd try it in the win markets to help get my closing trades near the front of the queue quicker rather than wait until I was fully matched before closing off. Because of the awkwardness of it's operation I have lost out on good moves and been caught by bad ones.

Last spring I had flagged these issues to the developer who promised he would resolve them in the next release. Of course, he subsequently decided to abandon the development of BinsarySoft altogether.

Another area where I am being hampered by BDI is it's inability to show multiple ladders. As a result, I find it very difficult to see what other runners are on the move whilst I am busy watching another. This has seen me, on many occasions throughout the past 8 months or so, miss wonderful opportunities.

Now, I've managed quite well in other markets without multiple ladders, but I feel in the case of the win markets having more than one ladder would be a distinct advantage. That is not to say that that is definitely the reason why I cannot come to terms with the win markets. It may simply be that my trading style is more suited to thin, jumpy markets. I hope not as that will drastically impair my ability to scale things up and make a reasonable amount from trading.

However, I'm afraid I keep coming back to this issue of software and the lack of a suitable alternative that will run on Linux. I can only hope that Betdaq will hurry up and release a ladder interface for their trading software - as long as it has multiple ladder capability.

The obvious thing would be to go the Bet Angel route. With the Betfair and Betdaq versions being virtually identical, there is a distinct advantage in doing so. I confess, I'm reluctant to do so as each time I've tried BA over the years, I have not been comfortable with it's interface. More importantly though is the issue of having to use Windows. That philosophical question needs to be answered before I can do anything.

In the meantime I shall persevere with trying the win markets, but I will not do so for much longer. Since the month began, I've only traded the win markets for 5 days in which time I've lost nearly £40. Thanks to the greyhounds and some soccer matched betting, I'm level for the month, but I cannot afford to make only 33 pence in a week. Not to mention the fact that my daughter is really hacked off with the lack of pocket money.


leonthefixer said...

Hi mate - not popped into the chat room much of late as I have been trying to get my head straight and concentrate on trading as much as possible.

Sorry to see the horses are not going to well - from the size of those losses I think you must be using to big a stake. To begin with when learning any market I would recommend that finding a method that works is far more important than making any money from it. Therefore I suggest when trying any new market to just start trading it with £2.

That way the losses are kept very small during the early weeks when learning it and also it removes the added pressure of losing money in the markets.

Hopefully you are recording your trading and being able to go back over it - if not I think it is very hard to try and figure out where you went wrong as you will not remember what happened correctly.

It took me a long time to get to where I am on the horse markets, if you manage to find a method that works in a week you will be one of the very few - it will take time so knuckle down for a long ride.

Remember you don't have to be involved in the market all the time - don't get annoyed about missing a move, just be satisfied that you can identify it.

Anyway best of luck mate and catch you soon!

Alistair said...

Hi Leon, good to see you are still 'alive'.

depending in odds, I'm using stakes anywhere between £10 and £60. More typically around the £20 mark. I chose to do this for a reason.

I've tried to trade in the win markets on many occasions in the past, not just this year. Each time, I found that trading to £2 was unrealistic for the very reason you cite. The losses are very small. As a result, I found myself taking risks that I normally wouldn't with higher amounts.

It's not so much the losses that are bothering me, rather than the not making money from other markets because I'm too busy in the win markets.

I shall persevere for a while, but if I don't see any progress I will have to concentrate on those markets where I do make money, albeit small amounts.