Half Baked Idea

My trading today seems to have been made up of halves. The first of these was my staking level. I decided to increase my stakes by 50% looking to make 50% more profit. This may have well been a half baked idea as my trading turned out to be terrible.

The signs were possibly on the cards in the morning session. I stopped for lunch with a disappointing £15. I've had worse, and I've certainly had better, but I'd been looking for at least £20 having increased my stakes.

The afternoon session proved to be very difficult and despite the higher stakes I only made £8 by 5:30 at which point, my trading went south very quickly. I traded 4 more races before stopping for dinner, finishing with the following results: -£9.88, £1.92, £2.07 and -£6.10! So, within a short space of time, I'd virtually halved my profit.

I went back in during the evening session and started to build it up again, but I was getting caught too many times culminating in another £4 loss in the 20:50 at which point I gave up for the night.

I traded 62 races today and made a measly £10.49. I lost 17 of these at a cost of £36.72! A quite shocking performance.

The question is, did increasing my stakes cause this? From a market point of view, I don't think so. I was very careful not to go into the market unless my staking level could be supported. Besides, the increase wasn't great in monetary terms. A typical stake would be around £40.

Did the increased stakes effect me subconsciously resulting in a subtly different trading style? To be honest, I do not know and I'm not prepared to speculate based on one days worth of trading. I was certainly careless at times, particularly towards the end of the afternoon session - and that's not the first time I've said that! It seems I still have lessons to learn.

I think it sensible to simply accept the fact that I achieved a profit and repeat the process over the next few days. Assuming a 50% increase in stake translates directly to a 50% increase in profit, it is clearly worth pursuing for a few days.

2 comments:

Jimmy said...

Hi Alistair,

I think increasing your stake 50% did in fact cause you to have a bad result,because you are not used to trading that amount, and plus you will double your losses if it goes against you. My stake at the moment is £50 and every week I increase it by £10. But if the odds are around 2 I will then stake £100. I do think there is a limit on the dogs which is about £100 stake for the normal races that are not on TV on odds of about 4.

Alistair said...

Hi Jimmy,

The increase in stakes meant that I'd be using anything from £25 to £60 depending on odds. At odds of around 4.00 my stakes are in the order of £35, which is not excessive and certainly well within what the market could support at the time.

I've traded with those sorts of stakes before, but I have since changed the way I use Binarysoft (long story which I won't go into here) which resulted in a lowering of stake. That's part of the reason for increasing them now.

My problems over the past two days have been twofold. First, I've been fundamentally misreading a lot of markets I've entered and secondly, I've been very slow to react to sudden market changes. I seem to have developed this inbuilt inertia and the simple act of moving and clicking the mouse seems to happen in slow motion.

I'm sure it's a minor hiccup and I'll get through it. At least I've made a profit, even if it is only 25% of what I'd like.

Alistair