High Hopes Dashed Again

Yet again, I achieved a profit which, on the face of it looks OK. However, I cannot say I'm satisfied with my trading. I've spent all day - 11 hours including lunch and dinner breaks - trading and getting myself increasingly frustrated by my mistakes. For example, I've just finished the day with a £5.50 loss.

What's been the most frustrating part is the number of times I'll put in a really good trade, and follow it up with an equally bad one in the next next race. As a result, my profit/race ratio is terrible.

Believe it or not, I got involved in 74 races today, yet my profit was only £39.89. I lost 19 of those races at a staggering cost of £31.14! More than half of that was in the last 2 hours, so fatigue may well have had something to do with it and I'll have to keep that in mind for the future.

I had high hopes for my longterm trade which I identified last night. Unfortunately, although the odds came in, they didn't come in as much as I was expecting. I traded out half of my stake, in small amounts, throughout the day. But come the off, I had to trade the remainder out to give me a respectable greened up profit of £13.

However, I only got £5 profit from the race.

During the afternoon I had been discussing the race with some of the chat room regulars. One of them noticed that one of the other runners had £8 waiting to be backed at odds of 26.0. A quick scan over the stats indicated that, for the same reasons as my original pick, this too would likely come in. So we took £4 each.

Just as I place my bet, £10 appeared for a third runner at odds of 21.0 and I took that as well, once again, for exactly the same reasons.

In retrospect, that was a mistake. Although I was confident that the odds would likely come in, what I naively didn't appreciate was the effect of the red hot favourite. It essentially hogged most of the money in the market, as you'd expect. As a result, there was never any momentum to bring the odds in for those two runners. Consequently, I had to trade them both out for losses of £1.84 and £5.80 respectively.

Still, it was a very useful exercise and one that I shall repeat, but not tonight as I'm absolutely knackered.

So the disappointing week continues, but at least the profits are continuing to come, albeit not as large as I'd like them to be.

I had intended to spend much of tomorrow looking at dutching and laying the dogs on Betdaq. There isn't enough liquidity to trade properly, but I'd like some form of alternative to using Betfair. Dutching and laying may provide that.

However, because I've been trying to get my trading back up to speed, I haven't had time to sit back and have a good think about what I want to do. So it looks like I'll end up scalping the dogs again.

I've also got to have a good think about how I'm trading the dogs. This has been sparked by a thread on the Racing Traders forum where a forumite known as 'The Badger' posted a screen shot of a dog trade he made this morning where he greened up for £24. I've never got near that, though granted, my stake levels are much less than the £100 he used. The point being, I've never felt that those stake sizes could be supported in the dog markets. Clearly, I'm wrong and it is something I need to think about.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi , have just found your blog site so will read with interest , as am looking to trade full time , mainly in football and tennis , do you trade full time and have you any success in football and tennis any tips

roger

Alistair said...

Hi Roger,

I officially don't trade full-time as I am a self-employed IT consultant, but given the amount of hours I spend on the dogs, I'm beginning to wonder.

At the moment, I do not trade football or tennis though those are sports I'd like to get to grips with.

For me, the trouble with football is exit strategies. I've never found one I like. As a result, I just have the occasion small punt on the beautiful game.

Tennis is a bit of a no-no as well. I don't have live pictures and, as I've found to my cost, trading tennis without them is a dangerous occupation.

So, I'm afraid, it may well be me looking for tips from you. LOL.

Alistair