Opportunity Knocks?

No, I'm not about to burst into song, or start juggling numerous household items whilst peddling a unicycle, through a burning hoop, on a tightrope 10 feet above the ground.

Now I'm showing my age again and I will have completely lost any reader under the age of 30, or possibly 40!

Late last night, I couldn't sleep so I thought I'd investigate something that had me browsing through the greyhound cards for today. While I was doing so, I came across the 20:53 at Perry Barr and something leaped out at me.

There was £30 sitting waiting to be backed at odds of 18.0 on a dog called 'Mall Nosey'.

My initial reaction was that this way too high. In all the races I've seen since I started trading greyhounds I do not recall many mutts going off at odds so high. I couldn't resist and so I grabbed £15 worth as a speculative trade and carried on with what I was doing.

However, I kept thinking about 'Mall Nosey'.

Looking back at the market, the remaining money was still there so I set off to Greyhound Data to check the stats for the dog.

Everything I saw confirmed that this price was too high. It's regularly been finishing in the top 3 of it's recent races; it's time round the Perry Barr track is better than the average; in it's recent runs, it's SP has never been higher than 5/1. Everything pointed to this price coming in.

In addition, the Racing Post has this dog in it's tricast for the race. It's running from trap 5 and they have 2-6-5 as the likely finish. The also have it's forecast odds at 8/1.

Clearly, this dog is no pup, if you see what I mean. With this in mind, I grabbed the remaining cash.

There is one potential spanner in the works in the form of the trap 2 dog, 'Fear Zafonic'. This dog is the red hot favourite and will likely go off at odds on. It has frequently done so in recent runs. Indeed, last night, there was over £200 waiting to be laid at odds of 1.80. To be honest, I was tempted to lay it, but I felt the price is likely to come in before going out.

In any case, the upshot of this red hot favourite will be that all the others, including my pick, will be unlikely to drop below 5/1. That though, will do me very nicely indeed. If 'Mall Nosey' doesn't come in, then fair enough. It's a risk worth taking in my view as the upside is much greater than the downside.

I'll find out as the race approaches.


Anonymous said...

Well done - you must have made some profit from that trade - perhaps not as much as you hoped but a profit I would be most grateful of given my recent form.

Well Done.


Alistair said...

Cheers Leon,

Certainly a smaller profit than I was expected, made even smaller by some poor decision making on my part.

All is explained in the latest posting.