Walking A Fine Line

I'm sure every trader out there is well aware of the tightrope our minds walk when trading. It never fails to amaze me how the slightest doubt can tip one's mind over the edge and before you know it, it's a fully fledged crisis of confidence.

Over the past few weeks, I have become very accustomed to earning £200-£300 per week. So my performance of Monday night, coupled with yesterday's loss was a major disappointment and potential setback. So much so that I have no doubt that it was praying on my mind as I traded today.

At no stage throughout the morning greyhound card, indeed, for much of the afternoon card, did I feel comfortable with what I was doing. I traded in a very tentative way, reluctant to jump on any trend that I spotted. When I did, I was getting out far too soon. As a result, it took nearly 4 hours of trading to recover the small £8 loss I had from yesterday.

It wasn't until I took a break and gave myself a good talking to that I started to settle into the task at hand. Even then, it wasn't until the last 30 mins of the afternoon card that I started to trade the way I know I can. I made more than £10 in that half hour spell, yet that only took me to £26 for the day.

After dinner, I squeezed in another 4 races before I had to go off to play badminton - boy am I going to hurt tomorrow, but that's another story. Those 4 races took me over the £30 mark which is much more respectable and I'm happy with that. More importantly, I'm happy that a potential crisis of confidence was averted.


Anonymous said...

I know exactly what you mean mate - unfortunatly I am currently experiencing that crisis of confidence and am on my worse ever run - I just hope I can break it today!


Rick Ford said...

Hi Alistair,

I'm enjoying your blog and I'm trying to trade on greyhounds myself but I'm having no success at all.

I'm fairly profitable on Horse Racing & Football but with greyhounds I'm just not getting it. I was wondering what is the best way/sign to enter the market with limited liquidity, i.e two mins before the off?

The quick price fluctuations always but me on the wrong side of the book. I've tried laying 1st then backing and vice versa but without the WOM guidance I'm getting to it all wrong.

Any help would be greatly appeciated


Rick Ford

Jimmy said...

Hi Alistair,
You'll get back to were you need to be, you helped me get back on the road again.



Alistair said...

Hi guys and thanks for popping by.

Leon - Sorry to hear of your bad run. I'm sure you'll soon come out the other side. I seem to have slowed down somewhat myself. Frustrating, but I'm sure things will pick up soon.

It would help everyone if Betfair would get their finger out and fix their delay problems.

Rick - Given my performance this week, I'm not sure I'm the man you should be asking for advice regarding the greyhounds. In many respects, I'm not sure what I do. I know that sounds daft, but it's now almost instinctive having watched so many dogs markets over the past 4 months or so.

However, here's some pointers that you might want to consider.

1. I know it's tempting, but avoid getting involved until 2 mins to go.
2. Make sure your stake size can be supported by the market.
3. Ignore WOM. In my view it's a waste of time in thin markets.
4. Be wary of getting involved if all the dogs are trading at 5.00 and over.
5. Be wary of a short priced favourite. Once it gets close to evens or better, it's not unusual for a large amount to take it out by a significant number of ticks.
6. The liquidity varies dramatically at certain times of the day. Adjust your trading style accordingly as the markets dictate.
7. Don't be afraid to oppose a large isolated amount. If it has nothing behind it to lend support, it frequently disappears.
8. Make use of William Hill Radio - there's a link on my home page. These guys know their stuff. It's not unusual for the market to react to what they say.
9. Don't be afraid to place small amounts outside the live prices. They'll frequently get matched. This is particularly useful outside the 2 min limit.
10. I was desperately trying to think of a tenth tip, but couldn't so I'll just give you the somewhat feeble 'have fun' :-)

I hope this helps.


Rick Ford said...

Thanks for the tips Alistair, they make a lot of sense and should be very helpful. I will link your blog/website to mine once I know how to do it.