It's A Funny Old Game

Though after tonight, I'd describe it as a frustrating, annoying and downright stupid game! I just cannot get the hang of this soccer trading lark. I was like a deer caught in headlights tonight.

I had intended to trade the Boulogne v Metz match as I expected this to be a low scoring game - correctly as it turned out. However, after Betfair inexplicably removed the match from their in-play coupon, I had to change my plans.

The other game I had had my eye on was the one at Arminia Bielefeld who were playing hosts to Hertha Berlin. I had felt that there was a reasonable likelihood of a few goals in this match so I had dismissed it in preference for the game in France. Clearly, after the Boulogne match was no longer going to be tradable in-play, I should have left this one alone.

To cut a long story short, I didn't. I never opened with a sensible position to start with and by half-time, and the score at 1-1, I found myself in all sorts of trouble. I managed to bale myself out on all other score lines other than the 1-1. Indeed, I sacrificed some of my position on this score in order to cover myself on the higher scores where I had bigger liabilities. Unfortunately, this meant that I couldn't get myself out of that position and I spent most of the second half praying for a third goal.

Needless to say, it didn't come and I lost £27.70 and thus providing myself with further evidence that I'm not getting the hang of these correct score markets.

To cap it all, this loss occurred on a day when I found the dog markets very difficult. With only one meeting on in the morning and the afternoon, there simply wasn't much money going around and I struggled to make more than a few pence per race. I only made £9 in 25 races which is in utter contrast to yesterday's performance.

Looking for better things tomorrow.


Tinerrz said...

hi alistair,

i have followed your blog since xmas and trade full-time on the dogs but atm using only £10 stakes in an aim to win £10 a day....just wondering what sort of stakes you use and whether you always trade the fav? Good luck with the footy - i hate the unexpected aspect of trading inrunnig but im sure its possible with hard work! Keep up the blog - its a good read. Can i add a link to ur blog on my blog? Mine is

Green screens,

PhilipH said...

Football is, in my opinion, as unpredictable as any other form of sport - and when it comes to correct scores or number of goals to be scored it is pure luck to get it right.

Yesterday, Ladbrokes clients were given a FREE entry form to win £1000 by forecasting the correct scores of 5 Scottish FA matches.

My guesses were:
Celtic v Queen's Park: 2-1
Inverness v Kilmarnock: 2-0
Hearts v Falkirk: 1-1
Aberdeen v E.Fife: 1-2
Hamilton v Dundee Utd: 1-1

The first two above proved to be the correct score; the rest were wrong. I now win a "Free Dixon Celebrity Bet" - whatever that is! I merely entered this in the forlorn hope of scooping the £1k top prize and will have to find out what this consolation free bet is.

Gauging the markets is the be all and end all of "trading", as far as I can see. If familiarity with a particular market is your forté then that's surely gotta be the one you trade in? Or have I got it wrong again? Probably!..:-)

Discipline and Win said...

Hi there, great blog. I too was flumoxed as to why BF removed the Metz game. Lucky for me, really, as I had pending over 2.5 bets on it. Only a fiver was matched in the end. I guess there wasn't enough money on it? Anyway, keep up the blog (and check mine out!).

Alistair said...

Hi guys and thanks for taking the time to comment.

Steve: My stakes automatically vary based on the odds - just the way the software I use works. Just now, I'm typically using £20 - £50 which, ignoring my poor performance of the past 3 days, usually brings in a profit in the same range.

I'm quite happy to swap links. I'll add your blog to my links page sometime this week.

Phil: The correct score trading is designed to allow one to cover all the likely scores at the start, then the others as the match progresses. Very much a work in progress there. Not sure how or if I'll master it, but it would be a lovely string to my bow if I could.

D&W: I presume the match was removed from the in-play markets due to live feed problems. It's one of the reasons I never open a position on football pre-ko if I intend to trade in-play. It wouldn't be the first time Betfair have not re-opened a market in-play when they said they would.

Thanks again chaps.


tinerrz said...

what software u using? bet angel with the profit per tick?

Alistair said...

No Steve, I use a wonderful application called BinarySoft BDI.

Unfortunately, it is no longer under development and could stop working at anytime if Betfair change their API functions.

That will be a sad day as it will mean that not only will I lose the use of a great program, but I will also have to return to the Evil Empire in order to use one of the other trading tools out there.