Senior Moment Sloppiness

I'm getting old. I admit it. Despite the fact that I have a degree in Electrical and Electronic Engineering, a post graduate diploma in Information Technology and I'm a Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer, my brain simply doesn't work as quickly as it once did. My reactions in response to visual stimuli appear in slow motion sometimes. Evidence of this can be seen everyday in my trading. None more so than today.

I stumbled through trade after trade today in the greyhound markets. I lost count of the number of times I spotted a swing about to happen, yet I could have read the whole of Lord of the Rings trilogy by the time my right hand responded to the signals from my brain to do something about it.

I got involved in 39 dog races today, losing £20 over 12 races, yet I still came away with a profit of £34! That was through luck rather than trading.

Way back in the dim and distant past when I traded the place markets, I made no secret of the fact that I'd like to be able to judge form so that I could take some of my pre-race profit in-play as a bet. It never really came to anything as I simply didn't have the time to learn about horse racing form. I still don't.

As I've been trading the dogs, I've often felt a similar desire, but again, I know nothing of greyhound form. However, the guys on William Hill Radio do. One in particular, Darren Driver, really knows his stuff and I have come to value his calls, primarily for trading purposes. The number of his picks that romp home is admirable.

Today was no exception as he was on a fine run picking quite a few winners, all at decent odds. So, having made a profitable trade in the 1:44 at Sheffield I decided to stick the £2 profit on his pick. After all, my trading hadn't been going that well, so what harm was there in a free bet?

None at all as 'Russanda Eva' stormed home at odds of 12.5! That made my day a bit better.

My dog trading took a back set for a while in the afternoon as I was match betting the horses over at Bet365. This is where I had another senior moment.

With my first pick winning in the 2:30 at Wincanton I had a free bet in the next, the 8:50 at Wolverhampton. Although it was someway off, the odds spread on 'Tourist' was good so I backed at 7.00 and decided to place a number of small lays at various odds as I expected them to come in a little.

As I placed numerous £10 lays at ever decreasing odds from 7.2, I couldn't understand why they were all being taken at 7.2. Then my brain woke up and I realised I'd been backing the stupid animal instead! Doh!

No problem though. It was simply a case of laying those bets off again at 7.2, only my brain had switched off without telling me and I overlaid! Again, it took me a little while to click why the numbers looked funny. So another small back set me right.

After all that, I wound up with £6.93 profit for matched betting over the two races. A disappointing figure, not because of all my mental aberrations, but my premature placement of the closing lays.

It is important to keep the odds spread as small as possible, which I did. 8.0/8.0 for the first race, followed by 7.0/7.2 for the second. However, one of the reasons I chose those runners was that I felt their prices would shorten on Betfair. And they did.

'Saphire Night' shrank to 5.9 before the off in the first race and 'Tourist' traded at 5.3 at one point. If I had managed to lay at both those prices then my profit for the exercise wouldn't have been £6.93, but £145.49! That's a big price to pay for a lack of patience and courage of conviction.

Whilst it is easy to say these things after the fact, I felt it worth while posting to demonstrate how important it is to optimise the odds taken as these are the biggest factors in maximising the profit from the Bet365 offers. Lesson learned though and I'll be willing to wait a little longer next time.

This evening also saw the start of my new horse trading regime as described in 'Back To Basics'.

I only trade 4 races in the evening meeting at Wolverhampton, including two races with only 3 runners which I found very difficult to read. Despite this, I made £1.39. Not a lot, but that represents an increase to my stake for next time of 5.6%. If I can do that everyday I'll be a happy bunny.

Back in the saddle tomorrow for more fun and mind numbingly stupid actions on the part of yours truly. Or should I just start drawing my pension now?

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