Am I Addicted?

Time after time on a Saturday I've come here to report some shocking trading, and today was no different. But why do I keep trading on a Saturday despite the fact that I almost always have a bad day? Am I addicted?

I awoke at 10:15 this morning and the first thing I did, even before getting dressed, was put the computer on because the dog racing was due to start at 10:30. That cannot be healthy. Half an hour later, I was already paying the price.

Having barely earned £2 in the first two races, I completely screwed up in the third and it cost me £18! Quite simply the worst trade I have ever made on the dogs, which is ironic having posted my best ever trade only yesterday. What goes around, comes around I guess.

I'm still annoyed at myself for that loss because it was a stupid mistake that led to the loss being so large.

I'd placed a lay bet which wasn't taken and the market moved on 2-3 ticks, so I place another order ahead of the market but stupidly forgot to cancel the initial one first. I'm sure you can guess what happened. As soon as my second bet was placed, the market swept through me taking both bets with it. I judged the market badly when making the trade, but that initial mistake meant I had double the money in the market than I would normally do, resulting in a loss of twice the size.

To be honest, I struggled after that, but slowly and surely I started to whittle it down again. Until I lost another £8 in an equally shocking trade, at which point I walked away.

My football trading in the afternoon wasn't much better. I still have great difficulties with exit points and an on-going conflict between the man trying to trade the event and the gambler in me saying I should let it go. The trader always wins, and ends up losing.

Take the Liverpool and Chelsea games this afternoon. In both I tried drip feeding £10 into the over 2.5 goals market, up to a max of £30. Ignoring the fact that the Chelsea game was not the best of choices for this market - a story for another day - these matches illustrate the problem I have with trading football.

In both cases, I had entered my full £30 before a goal was scored. The trader in me says bail out if there's no goal by the time the odds are such that I'd lose £20.

So, Liverpool score soon after I place my last £10. The odds drop allowing me to bail out for a profit of £6. The game then sees another 3 goals scored and the gambler in me curses the trader for the rest of the evening for not holding on a little while longer.

The Chelsea game is still 0-0 and I'm approaching my £20 trade out limit. I trade out as per the rules laid down by the trader in me and blow me, no sooner is that lay bet matched and Chelsea score. The gambler in me curses the trader for the rest of the evening for not holding on a little while longer.

Now, OK, this is all a little tongue in cheek, but it illustrates why I find trading the soccer markets so frustrating. I honestly do not understand how people manage it. For me trading soccer matches in-play feels even more like a gamble than actually placing a bet pre-KO and walking away. What I mean by that is, with the latter, there's little emotion involved whereas the former throws me onto a roller coaster of emotions. I wonder if any soccer traders out there share these feelings.

Anyway, I ended the day trying to retrieve some of my losses by returning to the dog markets - and just made matters worse by losing another £10.

Even the in-running experiment wasn't great with only one winner in 14 picks, with only 4 of those 14 shortening in-running by more than 50%, though all bar one did indeed shorten. I'll post the results later.

A £32 loss for the day and yet another crap Saturday return to report. I really MUST stop trading on a Saturday, but then, I'm addicted.

UPDATE 20:53 - The in-running data has been updated and is available for download now. As you'll see, I had a touch of 'seconditis' today.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Alistair,

Very impressed with your picks for laying off in running. Please can you advise what you look for when making your selections? Are you obtaining all of your info from the graphs of price movements or are you looking over the
racing post at form etc?

Anyway, well done mate.

Dave.

PhilipH said...

I've made that error when laying a horse in running after having backed it pre-race at good odds and in my haste to lay I completely forgot that I'd already left a "lay" bet at slightly lower odds on the ladder!

The "shock" it gave me only subsided when the horse got beat in the photo. What a relief that was - and what a lesson learned.

I gave the Betdaq "trading" (and I use the term very loosely in my case!) a miss for a few days and it was quite nice not to have to be so intensely concentrated during racing. I switched back to straight punting with Hill's and left the bets to run. Only small bets and no pressure; the results were good for me - pure luck I know but enjoyed the "old style" mug punting.

I will have another crack at Betdaq in a while, starting with a £50 bank and guarding it with great care (I hope!!!!). I know it can be done: you are living proof of that. Hope you can ease off the addictive bit Alistair ... it can overtake you if you let it.
PhilipH

Alistair said...

Dave, I don't study form. I don't have the time, the knowledge, nor indeed the inclination. There's a lot more people out there better informed than me so I try to understand what the market thinks and use what data is available to me just before the race starts.

To be honest, based on my latest calculations, my original plan of 50% drop isn't looking too great. I'll talk about those sums once I've got a lot more data to analyse.

Phil, these little foopahs (if that's the right spelling) are sent to try us. It's not the first time and won't be the last though it was, as I said in the post, the worst to date.

Thanks for taking the time to comment chaps.

Alistair