Best Trade Turns The Day Around

Saturday! That awful day were my trading seems to take a holiday, yet with so many sporting events to chose from I always feel obliged to give it a go.

After losing in all of the first four dog races I entered this morning I walked away in disgust and set about the DIY I had intended to do at the start of the week but continually put it off. I didn't go back to the computer until mid afternoon.

The intention was to trade some of the football matches kicking off at 3:00pm. Unfortunately, I couldn't make my mind up which match to get involved in so I kept my powder dry for the Arsenal v Chelsea match. In the meantime, having found myself £10 down on the dogs, I stuck to the horses where my trading was its usual haphazard self. Without going into details, I lost £10 there as well.

I did do a spot of in-running hedging, though having already lost money today, I stuck with paper trading. As is so often the case, no money involved means successful picks. Geez! I only did four, but here they are anyway, as mentioned in the chat room:

3:00 Thirsk - Destiny's Dream - BFSP 6.01 -> 1.01 Winner
3:25 Ayr - Chiaro - BFSP 15.07 -> 3.75
3:25 Ayr - King Barry - BFSP 14.00 - 6.40
6:15 Doncaster - Staying On - BFSP 6.82 -> 1.01 Winner

A nice set of results there with all four more than halving in price and two winners among them.

With the Arsenal v Chelsea match, I felt there would be goals. Both teams have been scoring for fun recently but had defenses that were not as solid as they should be. With this in mind, the over 2.5 goals market was the obvious choice.

For this, I thought I'd return to the drip feed technique that I have used in the past with the over 1.5 goals market. In this case, I opened a £10 back @ 2.20 and later had another at 2.70 once the match was underway. A third was placed at 3.20 but this wasn't taken before the first goal was scored around 18 mins at which point I traded out for a greened up profit of £10.

That was me finished for the day. I went off to have dinner, watch some TV and generally unwind. Saturday had been true as ever to its normal performance and I was £10 or so down. So it wasn't a disaster. However, there was sod all worth watching on the TV, so I later returned to the greyhounds to see if I could at least scratch the day.

The first race I entered and this happened:


My best ever trade on the dogs and in one fell swoop my day was turned around. So I'm off to bed, one happy chappie, to dream of the day when I can do that in every race.

2 comments:

leonthefixer said...

Hi Mate,

Great trade there!

Firstly sorry for not having a look at the videos you did. I have been having a nightmare with my ISP threatening to cut me to Dial Up speeds due to over usage so I have been keeping my internet usage to a minimum between 9am and 11pm. Those files were pretty big so with the little allowance I have left for the month I can't afford to download them until i switch ISP.

I have been reading with interest your investigation into IR trading using backs before the off. Not a clue how you are making these picks but whatever it is is clearly working.

I was fully expecting yesterdays post. It is sods law that as soon as you put money on these things it goes wrong. This tends to then scare you off from doing it again.

Personally I feel that you are achieving good profits now to afford a bit to experiment in new markets/ideas like this one. By exploring new things you will eventually find something else that works for you and will cover the 'experimental' costs incurred and then start adding to your p/l.

As you clearly seem to be making good selections I would suggest you give this a real bash. I would go about it in a simialr way as to how you went about your trading. Set aside a bank, say £100 and split it up into 50 units of £2. This is your experiment money. Starting backing all of your selections to £2 stakes and put your lay bet in as a keep bet before the off at your predetermined odds. From the looks of the results you have posted you are getting far more right than you are getting wrong.

However, you will get some wrong and therefore you will lose some money along the way. However, by keeping the stakes to just £2 you will be able to have 50 consecutive losing trades before your bank is gone. Though I would have thought it would be clear before thios point that it isnt working and it is time to stop.

I think you said you would make 100% return on successful trades so as long as you get more than 50% right it will work out. The added benifit is that it will be helping to reduce your premium charge if you are having some losses (I still find it wierd that you can be better off by losing money).

If it works out your new bank will grow gradually and with it you can increase the stakes and perhaps before you know it you will be up to £10 or more trades which will add considerably to your monthly profit.

If it all goes wrong you have lost at worse £100 which you will win on the greyhounds in no time yet in the process will have learnt a lot more.

Yesterday I think you only did two out of all of your selections. Not sure why you did that as unless you are confident in your selections surely they shouldnt be selections?

Anyway sorry for the long comment and I look forward to seeing how it works out but dont let a few losing trades put you off. Just keep the stakes small and let them build up. Remember you started out with just £10 and look how that has grown! I think it is inmportant to not use too much too soon!

All the best,

Leonthefixer.

Alistair said...

Hi Leon,

Trust you to do a comment longer than the post. LOL!

Joking aside, thanks for taking the time to respond. You've essentially outlined what I had running through my mind regarding this in-running malarky.

To be honest, I'm still undecided regarding staking and more specifically, level of hedging. Is it best to go for a 25%, 50% or 100% drop in odds? The lower the percentage the greater the hit rate. It might even work out more profitable to simply back them to win.

Therein lies another issue that I might have. This is going to be too much like conventional gambling (as opposed to actively trading) and I know from past experience that I do not have the mindset to handle the inevitable losing run.

I'll carry on with the monitoring for a while so that I get a better picture of what is possible. The only problem with that is, it's down right boring doing so.

Sorry to hear of your ISP issues. I hope you get them sorted soon.

Thanks again

Alistair