Change Of Tact Pays Off

I wish that headline was the result of a sudden sea change in my horse trading. Unfortunately it wasn't. I lost nearly £10 trying to trade the place markets this afternoon and with it, my earlier enthusiasm that I showed a few days ago is quickly disappearing. It doesn't help of course that I'm trying to pick and monitor results for the on-going in-running investigation I currently carrying out. In all likelihood, I'm simply not giving the place trading the attention I should be.

Speaking of the in-running issue, I had another 18 picks today from 11 races, finding 4 winners in the process at BFSP odds of 4.20, 7.60, 15.50 and 5.36. The updated PDF file is now available for download.

Yesterday I mentioned I had calculated that I would have been in profit to the tune of £191 if I had backed yesterday's picks to win at level stakes of £10. After today's results I calculated this for all the results in the PDF file. The result was quite staggering...

157 picks since starting this on the 9th April and, backing each of them to win at level stakes of £10 would have realised a profit of £795.28 after 5% commission!

Of course I am very aware that a sample size of 157 a system does not make, but figures like that don't half get the mind turning overtime.

Anyway, back to my original point...

I've been a little disappointed with my dog trading of late. Yes, I posted a great trade last Saturday - my best ever - but that was exceptional, not to mention lucky. My general trading has been something of a let down all month. Where I'd expect to be making £30-£50 per day, I've barely been making half that.

Well this morning I decided to do things differently. Normally, I wait until the last 2 mins so that the money is there to enable me to scalp the market for a few ticks. Today, I took a more long term approach. I went searching the markets 15-30 mins in advance looking for vulnerable positions that might be prone to large, momentary spikes, or money that was clearly sitting at wrong odds.

It was all pretty uneventful in that there was not a lot around. However, in the early races, there was some money intermittently floating around the 2.00 - 2.50 mark. I set about trying to grab some of the money waiting to back at those prices. I only needed one hit and I got it in the 12:18 at Oxford resulting in a new trading record for the greyhounds.

Later, I found £9 waiting to lay 'Shandon Focus' @ 10.00 in the 13:44 at Hove. So I grabbed that. By the time the start of the race was drawing near, I was able to trade out at average odds of 4.93.

These excellent results boosted my morning dog trading to £60. One of the best results I've ever had. Taking this longer term approach is certainly something I'll be looking into more regularly.

I tried some more greyhound markets in the evening but I lost as much as I won. Not surprising really as the markets were pretty thin. Still, over £60 on the dogs today and £50 overall. A much better result which hopefully continues for the rest of the month.


Anonymous said...

The expression is "Change of tack"...

Alistair said...

Yes, I know, but since I'm not sailing I thought I'd use a little play on words with 'tact' being short for tactic. This clearly sailed over your head though.

Still, it was nice of you to offer criticism without putting your name to it.

That is by-the-by. I trust you found the content of interest.


Purple said...

Hi Alistair

Which software are you showing on your screenshot? Looks very impressive. I'm enjoying the blog.

Alistair said...

Hi Purple,

The software is the excellent BinarySoft BDI. Unfortunately, it is no longer available.

Thanks for the comment


PhilipH said...

A nice little earner on the cherry-oggs Alistair, but HOW did you decide that laying at 2.4 was going to be a good thing? You would have had to stake a fair bit and if the odds had shortened you would have been a loser. Are you using some "dog-knowledge" with this selection or is it that you just guessed which way the market would go?

Not really explaining myself clearly here but you get my drift I hope.

When I choose a nag to BACK in the hope it will shorten I tend to look at (a) what the price is on Hills early on and compare it to Betdaqs odds; (b) who owns/trains/rides the nag, to see if the Betdaq price is higher (imo) than that combination warrants; (c) is the nag eased in class, with the right going and is it a course and distance winner.

So, I then back it if it's a longish shot and just assume it will shorten in running. I set a "lay" price to go in running and just hope for the best. Occasionally, if the price shortens a bit (but still not to my pre-set lay price) I'll lay it at the price offered and cancel the lower lay bet. However, trying to lay at the fast-moving prices in running can sometimes be hazardous if BetAngel(Betdaq) is fired a shade too late and catches the higher lay price that comes on offer.

I'll shut up here! I'm not too clever at explaining my shooting from the hip in running ... ;-)

Cheers, Phil

Alistair said...

My choice to lay a dog at 2.4 was based purely on market conditions combined with the experience of watching hundreds, if not thousands of dog markets over the past 6-7 months.

Dogs very rarely trade at those odds, at least not in BAGS meetings, not without coming drifting out again before the off.

The fact that there was money floating about so long before the start of the race was another indicator. It simply didn't feel right. So, confident that it would drift, I grabbed some of it when it arrived.

I was sure that it would drift, though the size of the drift was an added bonus.