It Was Bound To Happen

After making some money on the greyhounds this morning, I thought it was about time I started investing small amounts in the horse racing in-running hedging that I've been monitoring recently.

Just to re-cap, I've been looking for horses that will come in significantly during the race with a view to backing them pre-off or at BFSP then placing a closing hedge at lower odds that will automatically green me up. But at what odds do I place that hedge?

Over the weeks I have been taken aback at how many of my picks drop by more than 50% in odds. Of course, such a drop in odds would see a profit of 100% before commission. That was good enough for me. Unfortunately it didn't work out that way as the only two bets of £5 I placed failed to come in any significant amount. Typical!

Anyway, for the record, here are the picks I had today:

2:20 Ayr - Curragower - BFSP 6.2 -> 5.00
2:40 Newbury - Cheveton - BFSP 9.46 -> 4.40
3:05 Thirsk - Resentful Angel - BFSP 9.00 - 4.60
3:25 Ayr - Classic Act - BFSP 6.2 -> 3.75
3:40 Thirsk - Jonny Lesters Hair - BFSP 8.2 -> 2.76
3:40 Thirsk - White Deer - BFSP 4.50 -> 2.80
4:15 Thirsk - Mambo Spirit - BFSP 7.20 -> 3.10
4:25 Newbury - Lasso The Moon - BFSP 6.00 -> 5.20
4:45 Thirsk - Steel Stockholder - BFSP 12.70 -> 2.34
4.45 Thirsk - The Quiet Genius - BFSP 13.23 -> 12.00
7:20 Cheltenham - Tank Top - BFSP 4.50 -> 1.72
7:20 Cheltenham - DArgent - BFSP 10.70 -> Didn't shorten
7:30 Sedgefield - Red Dynamite - BFSP 12.51 -> 5.00
7:30 Sedgefield - Ormus - BFSP 14.00 -> 8.20
7:30 Sedgefield - Kingsben - BFSP 15.24 -> 9.20

So, £10 lost on this idea today, but I more or less made that up scalping the markets at the same time so no harm done.

One of the things I am finding is that it is difficult to resist getting involved in every race, as the length of the above list might indicate. That is something I'll need to work on. It's not something that I can plan in advance as I do not make the selections until close to the off.

I also tried trading the 1-1 correct score in the Burton v Oxford Utd match, but I only got £5 of my £100 investment matched. I wasn't going to chase the odds so I just closed the trade and called it a night.

Back again tomorrow.

4 comments:

Robin said...

Hi Alistair,
regarding in running trading, I would suggest you trade the longer races,generally 2 miles or more, and trade out BEFORE half way through the race,as in running odds go crazy towards the end of a race.On the shorter races, especially < 1 mile it all happens too fast to be tradable.
Best regards
Robin

feyang said...

hi there,

been following your blog recently and found it fascinating...I ve put up your blog into my Link Exchange, and hopefully you can do the same.

Blog URL: http://feyang.blogspot.com

Link text: The eX-Files

Description: My sports betting journal


cheers,

feyang

PhilipH said...

Whichever way you look at it you're still making a profit on a regular basis, which to me is quite amazing.

No matter how I try to stay disciplined on the exchanges I just end up doing my dosh. I seem to have more luck with the bookies, betting in VERY small amounts, like 50p ew Niche Market in the Irish National a few days ago! I think it is my more relaxed attitude when investing in just small amounts, for fun mainly. "Trading" requires stakes of around £40-£50 a time in order to make it possible to green up. I don't think I have the nerve for such stakes; lack of bottle I guess.

Keep going strong Ali.

Alistair said...

Hi guys and thanks for the comments.

I agree with you Robin regarding trading sprint races in-running. Very difficult with little time to react to changing conditions. However, at this stage, I'm not looking to trade these races but hedge them by placing a closing lay at predefined odds. Obviously a gamble as those odds might not be reached. Still early days really and I've yet to decide the level of hedge to go for.

Thanks for the link Feyang. You'll find a link to your blog on the links page.

Thanks as ever for the support Phil. I've still got a long way to go before I can by the Aston Martin. The way my trading of the pre-race horse markets is concerned, I'll be driving my old Peugeot for some time.

Alistair