Not So Good Friday

I found trading the greyhounds today rather difficult. There was so much money in the markets this morning that I just couldn't get my brain to adjust and found myself losing race after race. As a result, I gave up trading at 12:00.

It wasn't until I return at 2:00 and realised there was no horse racing on that it clicked why there was so much money on the dogs. With my afternoon plans thwarted, I spent some time playing around recording my trading on the dogs markets. Unfortunately, the new recording software that I installed is somewhat resource hungry and it severely impacted on the responsiveness of BinarySoft, resulting in more losses.

The only way I was able to stop this was reduce the quality of the recording and close all other applications, including William Hill radio. Unfortunately, I'm so accustomed to using WH radio that it has become an almost integral part of my dog trading. Without it, I wasn't getting anywhere so I stopped with a loss of £7 for the day, not that I did much in the first place.

With nothing else to do, I took the opportunity to visit something that I'd had mulling around my head ever since reading an article on the Bet angel blog about odds movements in football matches.

Although the article contains a video of the odds moving for a 1-0 result, I was more interested in the 1-1 scoreline. From what I've seen and gather, the odds for 1-1 actually come in slightly while the score remains goalless before drifting out again from around the 30 mins mark.

As yet, I haven't come across any games where there has been a very early goal, but if there is a score before 30 mins, then the odds come in significantly. Given that (ignoring my lack of data on early goals) the odds won't shoot out in the event of a goal, I felt that it was a relatively risk free way of pinching a couple of ticks with the added benefit of many more if a goal is scored.

If a very early goal did indeed take the odds out, I had the opportunity of trading the other scorelines to minimise my liability.

With this in mind, I backed the 1-1 scoreline in the Reading v Sheffield Utd match for £100 @ 7.60. Immediately after KO, I laid smaller amounts at ever decreasing odds and waited. Some of my lays were taken immediately. The rest I just left and hoped for a goal. After 20mins and no goal forthcoming with the odds looking like they were about to turn, I traded out at effective odds of 7.35 for a greened up profit of more than £3.

£3 doesn't sound that great, but I'm quite happy with a 3% return for 20 mins work. With the weekend coming up, they'll be plenty more opportunities to do the same thing so an interesting weekend ahead.

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