Some Sums

While I was bored out of my head at work today, I spent 5 mins doing some calculations on the in-running hedging results I've recording in the blog recently.

If you recall, my initial thoughts were to look for hedges that would double my money before Betfair commission. In other words, I needed the runners odds to halve in value at some point during the race.

Assuming level stakes of £10, 30 of the 49 picks posted so far have met that condition resulting in a profit of £95 after commission.

Compare this with the results of letting the bet stand and looking for winners. I've managed to pick out 13 winners from that 49 giving a hit rate of 26.5%. Again, level stakes of £10 would have achieved a profit of £319 after commission!

Granted, 49 picks can hardly be described as a significant sample size statistically. Still, food for thought.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Al,
if we go for the win alone, we're exposing ourselves to long losing runs, by trading we win more often, so can build to a higher stake quickly.
No need for us to limit ourselves to just one runner, when we know the expected running style of 3 runners, we have more trading opportunities,although many races unsuitable.
have fun...Smokey

PhilipH said...

Alistair, I have been doing much the same as you by placing a back bet and then leaving a lay at a lot lower for the same amount - leaving it to go in play. I reckon that 60% have been matched in running but only a very few went on to win.

I only use small stakes, sometimes as low as 50p (which you can do on Betdaq if using BetAngelBetdaq - but not directly on the Betdaq page). This means that "greening up" is virtually pointless and I only nick a few bob now and then when the nag goes on to win.

I also do not bet on the favs/2nd favs like most traders do. I go for horses which I "fancy" for some reason or other. These are often long shots but it surprises me how many that were on offer at huges odds, say 40s or sometimes more, still get matched at my "in running" requested odds.

I guess that if I placed a back bet of say £4 at (say) 12 and then immediately put a lay at (say)4 or 5 for £4.20 to go "in play" I would have a nice little earner BUT £4 bets are my MAXIMUM, which to 99% of "traders" is laughable.

I am still a very nervy punter on the exchanges and feel a lot happier on the bookies site (willhill.com). Like yesterday I had a 25p ew Patent on Cartoon, Libel Law and Blue Tango. This was a carefree punt on two of M Jarvis/P Robinson nags which went in at 9-1 and 9-2 for a nice little return of just over £20. If Blue Tango had obliged, or even got in the frame, I'd have been a very happy bunny (I took 25-1 about Blue Tango). Why Blue Tango? Simply because I often pick on a nag whose name has a connection with ballroom dancing! That just shows the research I put in to punting!;-))

Cheers, Phil

PhilipH said...

Today I start with Avoca Dancer, which I've taken 16-1 ew with WillHill and you could have got around 20 or more on Betdaq. I am pretty sure this one will shorten before the off and probably in play. Cheers again, Phil

Alistair said...

Hi Guys, just catching up on comments.

Smokey, it is the exposure to long losing runs that will be the killer for me. I know I do not have the mental strength to withstand them. No idea what % level of hedging is sustainable, so still very much in data collection mode to see what's possible. results are certainly encouraging though.

Phil, I don't understand why you would be a 'nervy punter' on the exchanges when you're happy placing bets at the bookies. You can always treat the exchanges as a bookie and not bother trading out if that's your thing.

In any case, once you find the 'style' that suits you, then you'll have more confidence to increase your stake and reap the rewards accordingly.

Cheers

Alistair

PhilipH said...

Alistair, I prefer to place my small "fun flutters" with WillHill as I can bet each-way singles and multiples much easier than on Betdaq. Often I go in too soon on Betdaq and take a price lower than the best, which is annoying. On WillHill I can place all my bets at a price and know that if they drift I will get the SP - but keep the bigger price if they dip.

I appreciate what you are saying and overall I guess one comes out with better odds on the exchanges but then again their minimum stakes are not viable for the small punter, which I tend to be.

Cheers, Phil