A Totally Tropical Taste

Twice today, I went on tilt and wiped out what gains I had built up. The first these happened in the morning dogs where I completely lost the plot, kept going in to retrieve the situation only to make it worse.

I stuck with the mutts until I had retrieved my losses and got myself back into the black, albeit only just, at which point I switched to the horse place markets. Well blow me, did I not go and do the same thing there? All afternoon I was building up a nice profit until, towards the end of the afternoon, I lost it all in one fell swoop. The usual story, misjudged the market and kept going back in to retrieve the it but only compounded my error in the first place.

So a small and insignificant loss of £2. It's more the wasted day that is frustrating. Having said that, I also carried on with the in-running monitoring I've been doing, with excellent results once again. So the day wasn't a total write off.

I made 18 picks today from 12 races with 5 of those winning their respective races at BFSP odds of 9.48, 5.20, 6.20, 7.20 and 11.01. Again, if I was to back all those picks simply to win and not bother hedging, I'd have made £191 profit, after commission, to £10 level stakes. Food for thought?

I spent last night and this morning setting up a spreadsheet to record the results of my picks. As mentioned the other day, I was going to put all these into one separate web page for easy reference. However, I've decided it was simplier just to export the data to a PDF file. You can find it here and I'll update it regularly.

It includes three days worth of results that I had done before regularly posting them on the blog. Feel free to browse through the results at your leisure.


Anonymous said...

Been following your blog for some time and find it very informative. I cant quite understand your spreadsheet on the horses you are backing so can I ask you to explain please?
Where does it show the price you placed to close in running therby gving you your profit?
Sorry if this sounds thick but I am not really sure.
Good luck in future trading.

Alistair said...

Hi Stephen,

I take it you're talking about the PFD file I release last night. I'm using the Betfair SP as the price as this seems the fairest way. Please note though that, at the moment, I'm not committing any money to this. Just monitoring for the moment.

Here's an explanation of the columns:

Date, Time, Racecourse, Type and Runner are all selfexplanatory.

Dist is the race distance. Note that I'm expressing this in decimal format as it makes it really easy to apply custom filters. Before the decimal point represents 'miles' and after the point, 'furlongs'. So a distance of 3.2 is a 1m2f lenght race.

BFSP is the Betfair SP set by Betfair as soon as the race starts. Those would be my back odds.

Min Odds are the lowest odds that the runner touched in-running.

Result is the finishing position of the horse. If it doesn't finish, for whatever reason, you see a 0 (zero) in this column.

Hope that helps.


PhilipH said...

So a distance of 3.2 is a 1m2f lenght race.Presumably you mean 3.2 is 3m2f Ali?

Great idea to record these in running stats the way you've done.

Regarding the £191 profit you could have made by just straight punting is something I think would immediately turn into a loss if you were to try it! I've been there, and got the tee-shirt.

I'd say that if you back them pre-off time and then lay back in running at, say, 50% of the original back-price for the same stake+a tad more could prove a winner with little downside. I cannot practice what I preach as I often fancy the nag I've selected so much I just let it run. Punting!

Still, who the heck am I to spout on this topic! Must be the world's most hopeless "trader".

Cheers, Phil.

Alistair said...

Hi Phil and well spotted. I do indeed mean 3.2 is a 3m2f length race.

Sorry if anyone found that confusing.

Regarding in-running, my original idea was to look at hedging at half the back price. I haven't checked with the latest data added, but while it was profitable, it was nowhere near as good as simply backing to level stakes.

I'll run the calculations again later today, but as I've already found 4 winners at good prices, I doubt that there will be any reversal.


PhilipH said...

Just been listening to the Juicestorm interview Alistair and enjoyed it immensely.

The bit about your earlier attempts at "trading" with just £2 or £3 stakes, and getting peed off with it, mimics my own wishy-washy fumbles on Betdaq.

How, though, did you manage to work your way up from a tenner bank and eventually to where you are now? I've tried with a couple of £40 banks and blown them both, but each time I was using no more than £4 stakes. OK, I made a few stupid blunders along the way which made me lose my cool, so to speak. Then trying to recoup (aka chasing losses) took its toll on the bank - ending up with having a couple of straight punts which went awry.

Anyway, thanks for introducing Juicestorm. I shall be dipping into a few of the existing archive chats from time to time.

The host has a unique style and I wonder if he is trying to be a bit of Jonathon Ross at times. Still, a nice cheery type of bloke and he keeps the thing rolling along nicely. BTW, was all your input via a telephone?

Cheers Phil

Anonymous said...

Hi Alistair,
Thanks for the details; I must admit I had overlooked the fact that you said you were paper trading so apologies.
Just to let you know, I have tried this form of trading and have even tried using the Timeform Inplay Racecard but have found it not to be profitable long term. From my point of view, having to pick the one or even two that will shorten enough is the problem. Picking the wrong one, or two, results in the loss of maybe two stakes and in the longer term it wipes out the profit.
I have even tried simply going for a few tics but that resulted in insufficient winnings to cover the inevitable losses.
Personally, I am very interested in your 'trial' and would like to know your own thinking on how you might make it work so will be watching for more information in the coming days.
Good luck Alistair.

Alistair said...

To be honest Stephen, I've not decided how I am going to use this information as yet.

The main point of the exercise at the moment is establish if I am able to consistently identify runners that will shorten in-running, how much they shorten and ultimately would it be profitable?

To date, I've made 157 picks. Not nearly enough to answer these questions. I'll carry on the process until I've made around 1000. That will take another couple of months I guess. A boring process but worth doing to establish if there's something there I can use.

Thanks for the comments.