Treading Water

If ever there was a day I felt I wasn't getting anywhere it was today. I spent most of the day trying to recover from a bad start on the dogs, which wasn't helped by a premature, if temporary suspension in the third greyhound race of the day.

No sooner had my lay bet been matched and the market suspended with 60 seconds to go. When it reopened, the market was at lower odds than I had laid at and, with less than 30 secs left, I was forced to take a £10 hit. I never recovered from that, though I did spend most of the day trying.

Fortunately, the small amount I lost on the dogs was made up by scalping the horse markets. Only £3.60 but significant in that it put an end to 4 consecutive losing days on the horses.

So far this month, I'm down £42 on the nags and I do not feel that I'm getting anywhere. I haven't been able to identify why and when things are likely to happen. Indeed, they usually do the opposite. I'm getting out far too soon when things are going my way and jumping out too soon when the temporarily go against me. Well, I'm sure you've heard it all before, from many traders not just me.

I find it all so frustrating. I'm simply not enjoying it and feel like I'm continually banging my head against a brick wall. Consequently I'm going to leave the horse markets alone for a while but when I return, I may, once more, try hand in the place markets where I plied my trade originally. Hopefully, that will all come back to me.

In between the scalping of the horses, I continued with the exercise of identifying horses that would shorten in-running. A bit of a mixed bag today, but here they are in any case:

2:50 Wincanton - Thetearsthaticry - BFSP 10.50 -> 8.40
3:20 Wincanton - Craven - BFSP 10.56 -> 8.00
3:40 Lingfield - Good Again - BFSP 4.40 - 1.01 Winner
4:00 Stratford - Charmaine Wood - BFSP 4.45 -> 3.00
4:20 Wincanton - Sterling Moll - BFSP 12.91 -> 4.00
4:40 Lingfield - Keenes Day - BFSP 3.97 -> 1.01 Winner
4:40 Lingfield - Wine N Dine - BFSP 4.83 -> 3.00
5:00 Stratford - Take Me There - BFSP 10.61 -> Didn't shorten
5:10 Lingfield - Rowe Park - BFSP 3.40 -> 1.01 Winner

The biggest problem I am having with this is resisting the temptation to make a pick in every race. Just like pre-race trading, sometimes there just isn't an opportunity. It's all too easy to convince oneself that a particular horse will shorten when, in actual fact, there's no indication that that will be so.

Anyway, very much a wasted day today with a loss of 4 pence! I wish I'd spent it outside in the garden now. Looking forward to better things in the coming week.


Anonymous said...

Hey alistair.
I think some markets just don´t fit to your trading style. Have tried myself to trade the horsemarket alot of times. Everytime with the same result - I just lose. I make money on the greyhounds just like you. The problem is that you cannot go higher with the stake you use, which for me is the main reason why I keep going back to lose on the horsemarket - Money is just bigger. I have just come to the conclusion that I must settle with the money I make on the greyhounds and be happy with that. It just fit my style of trading.
Thank you for a nice blog and keep up the good work.
Best regards
Hans Gottlieb / Denmark

Rick Ford said...

Your simply using the wrong techniques. Are you studying the graphs/movement to see what is going on in the market? If the graph is steady and showing resistancy at a certain level then you can do big 1 tick scalping, if there is a trend then you follow it. IMHO you need to study the cards and justify why a price is moving in such a direction as well. Identfying weak RP forecast favourites is my main long-term trade tactics.

Alistair said...

Hi chaps and thanks for the comments.

Hans, I know the feeling. The limited scope on the greyhounds is exactly the reason I keep trying the nags. I just haven't discovered that eureka moment yet. Still searching.

Rick, I do study the graphs believe it or not. I know many traders will say that graphs are useless, I am not one of them. With me, it's more of a confidence thing. I've lost so many times, that I often do not have the courage of my convictions.

This is no more true than trading around a resistance level. There is no way, yet, that I'd be comfortable 1 tick scalping with the sort of stake sizes that would make it worthwhile.

Now, I fully understand the need to put the time in to reap the rewards, but it is difficult to justify this when my trading in other areas is suffering.

To be honest, I need a break, from the horse trading in particular, as I'm somewhat demoralised at the moment and that is not a good place to be when trying to trade.

Once again, thanks for the comments. Much appreciated.


Rick Ford said...

Hi Alistair,

I know what you mean. It's all very well me saying what you should look for but the mindset and confidence issue is also just as important as the strategy. Maybe you do just need time out and decide what to focus on?

Along with lots of other stuff I will be trying to cover these mentality/mindset issues in my blog, so it would be good if you could add me to your links page?

Rick F