What Does The Market Know Anyway?

How can I correctly predict which team will win a football match and yet still come away with a near £3 loss?

I've thought for some time that scalping the pre-match soccer markets must be a relatively safe way of picking up a few ticks profit over the weekend. Today, I thought I'd give it a go, but which match?

The one that stood out for me was the match at Goodison between Everton and Wigan. Everton are a team on form and their visitors clearly are not. The home side seemed the obvious pick so I stuck £100 on them at 1:30pm this afternoon. I put in numerous lays at every decreasing odds to close the trade and went back to trading the greyhounds and horses.

Obviously, everyone else in the land didn't see the match as I saw it as the odds had drifted as kick off approached. I was forced to take a 5 tick loss. Only £2,87, but all the more galling as Everton went on to win 4-0.

I've no idea how the pre-match market came to the conclusion that Everton were too short at my entry point of 1.97. Trying to judge other peoples thought processes is clearly something that only Paul McKenna can manage.

It's been a topsy-turvy month so far. Started off with a £30 loss, followed by a £50 profit on the 2nd. I then spent Friday afternoon building up a reasonable profit on both the horses and the dogs only to go on tilt in two races in the space of 30mins, one in each discipline, which saw me wipe all my dog profit and virtually all my horse profit. Sometimes this trading lark just makes me want to throw my computer out the window.

Saturdays are never a good day for me, though yesterday afternoon I couldn't have traded if I wanted to. Neither BinarySoft BDI or the Betfair website would let me in. It wasn't until well after the big race that I managed to get some trading in where I managed to add £21 to the pot thanks to the dogs.

I did try some of the evening horse races - 5 in all - but my small profits were wiped out by the one losing race.

My performance on the horses has been disappointingly ropey of late, so this afternoon, in between watching the F1 replay, the BTCC meeting from Brandshatch on ITV4 and the odd greyhound race, I concentrated on trying to minimise the number of stupid losses I've been having on the horses.

I was quite please with a return of nearly £14 over 17 races with only one loser of £1.62. I thought the markets were remarkably quiet, particularly after yesterday. Perhaps everyone had spent all their cash at Aintree. In any case, more of that level of performance is needed before I can really think of upping my stakes.

Trading for this week will be sporadic as my daughter is on her Easter break, so no doubt I'll be doing other things. I'll update the blog with any change in monthly figures, but new postings may have to wait.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Al,
it's boring watching pre match soccer odds moving a tick every now & then. This is where we use trailing stop loss. We don't have to limit ourselves to one game either.
I enjoyed your comments on dog trading.
have fun.....Smokey

Simon said...

Hi,

I read your blog fairly regular but this is the 1st time i've posted.

I was just curious as to how many days a week on average you usually trade on?? And for a full day of trading, what you'd justify as a decent profitable day.

Thanks

Simon