In-running Hedging Results

I haven't mentioned the in-running hedging monitoring very much of late, mainly because I haven't been doing any LOL!

I found it too distracting while I was trying to get to grips with pre-race trading. Trying to do both was impacting on the quality of the in-running selections, as well as my concentration levels on the pre-race trading.

I had intended to carry on until the end of this month or until I had made a minimum of 500 picks. However, for the reasons outlined above, I've decided to draw an end to it having made 376 picks. The PDF file is up to date for anyone wanting to look at it themselves.

The findings were not what I expected. If you recall, I had had ideas to back pre-off and immediately place a lay bet at a predetermined level to 'keep' if necessary. What that predetermined level would be was the reason for this exercise, but I had hoped that a hedged profit of 100% could be regularly achieved. In actual fact, the figures indicated that it would simply be better to back to win or at least hedge at a very small value i.e. <= 1.05ish.

In any case, the results are best summarised by the following graph and is based on level stakes of £10...

This in itself was a disappointing result, apart from the obvious profit when simply backing every pick to win at level stakes of £10 that is. It means a return to conventional gambling - and its inevitable losing runs, which is the reason I turned to trading in the first place. I simply do not have the mental strength to survive prolonged (or even not so prolonged) losing runs.

Whether I return to the idea at another date is debatable. It's been a useful exercise in that it has helped my pre-race trading and what to look for when trying to find swingers - oooh err! For the moment though, it's time to put it to bed. Hopefully you've managed to get something out of it as well.

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