Losing The Will To Live

I'm not a superstitious man. I don't believe in fate, the Zodiac, leprechauns or magic healing crystals. I don't believe in God, irrespective of his religion, or any other all knowing and all seeing being. I'm not a follower of conspiracy theories nor do I believe that 'the man' is always out to get me.

I DO believe that it is all too easy to let this trading lark question one's beliefs! A couple of examples today exemplified this and had me throwing my hands in the air and cursing the gambling gods for continually having a laugh at my expense.

The first of these occurred in the 2:40 at Yarmouth. This was only my second race of the day, having scratched the preceding race at Nottingham.

As I've said before, ultimately, I want to be able to swing trade rather than scalp the horse win markets, though both are valuable skills to have. With this in mind, I use the Betfair graphs and those available in my trading software to help me. Or that's what the plan is in any case.

For the race in question, I identified 'Elusive Hawk' as a likely contender for a long term drift. As a result, I laid the horse @ 4.30 as indicated in the graph below. As you can see from the graph, taken just as the market went in-play, I was indeed correct.


As you can see, an excellent move all the way out to more than 6.50 before the off. Why then, having assessed this horse exactly right did I come away with a loss of £4.20?

The continued problem I have in the horse markets of holding my position. I'd enter the market which would immediately go against me. I'd bail out with a 2-3 tick loss only for the market to immediately reverse through my original position into, what would have been, profitable territory.

I'd go in again, and the same thing would happen. Again and again, rinse and repeat. So, despite getting the move right, all these little losses add up to something more substantial. I am finding it incredibly difficult to have the courage of my convictions when every other trader out there is lying in wait to pounce on my money shouting "Ali's here again, let's have him". Or so the conspiracy seems.

The second example of mysticism, or more accurately, the gambling gods pissing themselves at my expense, came in the 3:10, though I didn't notice for roughly 45 mins - see, the buggers won't even let me in on the joke!

Having found myself down £6 in the first 2-3 races, I suddenly put in a decent trade and got it all back. Yipee! I promptly moved on to the next race feeling a lot happier than I had been 5 mins earlier.

Forty five minutes later, when checking my P&L on Betfair, there was no sign of my £6 profit. The one horse that was withdrawn before the off happened to be the one on which I'd made the profit. Give me a break!

At this point, I stopped caring. I'd lost the will to live and, though I carried on trading, I wasn't bothered what happened. I was virtually picking a horse and it's direction randomly. Suffice to say I went on a losing streak. Jeez! Even the Laws of Averages seemed against me!

Having made £9 in the morning dog session, I found myself in the red and down over £13 on the horses.

Going into the evening session, the losses continued until the 7:10 at Leicester where I finally had a decent trade of £6 which Betfair didn't take away from me. This perked me up a bit and I only had one more loss as I put in some decent trades to not only get myself back in profit for the day, but to end up in profit on the nags as well. What a turn around.

Today's performance was a perfect example of why I am finding the horse win markets so frustrating. I know I can trade. I've done it in the place markets and continue to do it with the greyhounds. One doesn't turn £10 into £6K over a 14 month period then simply lose those skills overnight. As you can see today, I can, and do, put in some good trades. Unfortunately, I'm putting in far to many poor ones to make this pay - at the moment.

Whilst I have been down and frustrated with the win markets, particularly over the past week or so, this evening's performance and the great turn around that it produced, has given me some reason for hope. At least until the next conspiracy theory comes along. LOL!

I finished the day by trading the four quarter finals of the Greyhound English Derby being held at Wimbledon. This more than doubled my profit for the day and was a welcome boost. In addition, my one remaining ante post pick is through to the semi-finals. Hopefully, its odds will drop significantly allowing me to trade out and recover some of the losses from the other failed picks.

For a change, I thought I'd include the greyhounds in the P&L graph to let you see what a rollercoaster ride I've had since 11:00 this morning.

2 comments:

PhilipH said...

The term "a dour Scot" springs to mind when reading your recent posts Alistair. No disrespect of course, just a term which seems to me to sum up your amazing staying power.

As I've said, trading was taking a toll on my money as well as nerves and so I surrendered; gave up; ran away. So I salute your dogged perseverance and really do hope that you are soon on the upward trend again, before the end of this month of May.

Alistair said...

LOL! My post was meant to be tongue-in-cheek. I hate to think how I come across when I really am 'dour`!

I'm sure I'll get there in the end, though it may take umpteen attempts.

Alistair