Wasted Time Is Relative

With less than £5 added to the running total for the month it would appear that today's efforts were a waste of time. To some extent, this is true. Certainly as far as my dog trading is concerned, but looking back over the day, it was far from it.

The least said about my greyhound trading the better. I struggled to spot any decent moves all morning and spent my time adding pennies to the total. Just over £5 for over two hours work, which I then threw away on the second last race before lunch. I don't know what was wrong today. The markets seemed particularly flat and I just couldn't make any headway.

Thankfully, things were better on the horses with both pre-race trading and in-running monitoring proving successful.

As mentioned yesterday, I'm trying to use the Betfair and Binarysoft graphs in a more intelligent and analytical way in order to identify longer term moves. Concentrating on finding runners that are shortening, this was again successful today in terms of identifying the moves. However, I lost a lot of profit because of a lack of conviction in my assessment. As a result, I was frequently getting out for 1-2 ticks when there was often much more to be had if I'd waited. Still, that will come as experience grows.

What is important is the number of times I get it right. Today, I entered 19 races and only lost in 3 of them for a total of £1.50. Having started with a £10 stake yesterday, I added that profit for today's stake of £12. Next time, which is likely to Monday or Tuesday, the stake will be £16 after adding today's profit. Doing this, I plan to grow my stake as I learn.

As for the in-running hedging I've been monitoring, I'm still doing it but trying to be mindful that it doesn't interfere with the pre-race trading process. Today was a slow start as I didn't get a winner until the 4:45. Actually, the number of races that had short-priced favourites meant my choices were limited, particularly in the afternoon.

In the end, I made 22 picks throughout the day and only managed to find 3 winners, but that doesn't really matter when they are at BSP odds of 5.90, 5.58 and 23.63! With results like that, it is hardly surprising that the in-running hedging seems to be morphing away from the original plan into a straight forward betting system.

Despite my poor greyhound trading today, I've three picks out of five original ante post selections for the Derby being held at Wimbledon. All were backed for a fiver each over a week ago. One lost in the first round last week, with another falling by the wayside tonight. The remaining three backed at odds of 130.0, 200.0 and 450.0 are through to the third round and I expect to be able to trade out a little before then.

So, a poor showing in terms of profit for the day, but far from a wasted day after all.

3 comments:

Paul said...

Hi Alistair, A while back a guy who was developing his own trading software told me that BF charge companies £200 per month to access the api. Assuming he wasn't telling porkies, who is paying for binarysoft's access now they've ceased trading? Thanks as always for the blog, mate

Alistair said...

Hi Paul,

Good question. My understanding is that BinarySoft was sold, or at least the source code was, though I may be wrong there.

When the original developer announced last summer that he was ceasing development, he did say that existing subscribers would be able to continue using BinarySoft indefinitely, or at least until Betfair changed the API that caused it to stop working.

It certainly continues to work, and to be honest, I have never given your point much thought.

Cheers

Alistair

Paul said...

doesn't really matter anyway. Was just wondering. Cheers