Consistently Inconsistent

Talk about erratic! Not much to say about today's performance. To be honest, I'm mentally drained and too tired to describe it, so I'll leave you to interpret the P/L graph for yourselves. Suffice to say, I'm not sure how I managed to escape with just a £7 loss.


Steve said...

Yesterday was a hard day didn't seem to be half the usual amounts in the markets for Ascot and the prices moving around quite a lot more than I'd expected. Looks like you didn't go in with the £2 stakes to try things out Alistair.

I had a nightmare start where my software crashed just as I'd stuck around £900+ on 5 horses into the 2:30 race. By the time I was back up again they'd gone in running and I was frantically throwing lays into the market to get some back, ended up losing £270 on the race. More annoyingly I'd had £200 on the winner at 26's and would have ended up about £4K+ up if my software had stayed down longer :(

Day just seemed to be a bit of a slog from then on but luckily resisted the chase urge. Even had to miss my usual friday pub night with mates which was a pain but needs must. Good decision in the end and managed to get a profit of £374 on the day as there were plenty of races and picked up some good results throughout the day.

I never look at my p\l these days just import it into a database at the end of the day and it still amazes me how these relatively small amounts build up and even relatively large losses can be recovered just by the sheer amount of races at the moment.

Hopefully today should a good one with all the saturday punters cash flying around for the last day of Ascot.

Anonymous said...

Finally managed to figure out how to do your snazzy graphs Alistair. Dunno if they tell me much other than I cocked up the first race but they look nice.

Alistair said...

Hi Steve,

I started off Ok, but went on tilt for an hour around 3:15. That's when the damage was done. I nearly got myself back level when I got into a £10 profitable position in the 3rd last race. Stupidly though, I went back in to pinch another £1 and wound up losing £7, at which point I stopped for the night.

I just used my normal stakes for the Ascot races. I won all of them bar one when the money on my side of the market suddenly collapsed and I wound up taking a 3-4 tick loss. Still, it was a worthwhile exercise and I'm happy I know what to look for in future big meetings.

Thanks again for your input.

Anonymous, that's a frightening loss to start the day, though I'd be more than happy with the same daily return as you achieved.

I agree that the graph doesn't tell you anything different that a Betfair P/L printout does, though it is easier to assimilate the amounts than scanning a column of numbers, I think anyway.

Thanks for the comments chaps.


Steve said...

I'd forgot to add my name on the graph post, the first race loss was a bit of a downer but managed to get up for the day which is the main thing. Found todays racing abit hard going with so many races. Even though I reckon I'll have a decent profit for the day could've been a lot more if I'd concentrated on the better races rather than trying to do all.

You should consider looking at a lot of the other markets for the flatline style of betting. The bigger liquidity football markets are good especially if you concentrate round the draw as that'll rarely stray far if anything.

Avoiding the chase/tilt is the hardest part of trading but as soons as you crack that your trading will become will become alot easier. The simple maths of not redding out generally means we've ended up laying one at well over the true odds and they'll always hit you long term. You get away with it once or twice but thats even worse as you may end up relying on it as part of your trading style and it'll hide whether or not your trading is actually profitable.

I changed my betting style slightly to avoid chasing a while back and now generally back first rather than laying as it's alot easier to get your mind into closing mode when faced with a sea of reds rather than seeing a sea of greens bar one when trades go wrong. Might be worth trying if you generally lay first.

Alistair said...

Hi Steve,

That's a good point regarding the 'flatliners' and I shall look at the football markets come the new season - which will be on us before we know it.

I tried this again in some of the Ascot races yesterday (Sat) and earned a few pounds with no losers. Not ready to put huge amounts into the markets yet - need to build up the bank first.

I haven't put much thought into whether I back or lay first. I try to assess each market accordingly and go from there.

When I was looking at the in-running hedging last month, I was specifically looking for runners that were coming in. From a pre-race trading point of view though, I found that I was missing a lot of potential drifters. That why I stopped that particular project as I found it was impairing my pre-race trading.

Having said that, I learned a lot from the that process which has definitely helped in my pre-race trading.