A Day For New Records

My main focus today was to try and cut out the inconsistency that was so prevalent in my trading yesterday. The main reason that progress hasn't been as quick as I would have liked is the number of losers I'm having, even though, over the month, I've built up a reasonable profit. Cutting out the number, and the size, of those losing trades would see a major boost to the returns I'm already getting.

The area where I am particularly weak at, is recognising when to walk away from a losing trade. I am forever going back into the market to retrieve an initial losing trade only to make things worse. Going back in for a second time is fine. I've recovered numerous trades doing so. However, going back in and losing time and time again is what is making my losing races so sizeable.

Throughout the afternoon I concentrated very hard to avoid that mistake. Indeed, I had done quite well having had only two losers out of 20 races and accumulated £25 in the process. I was pleased with that only for me to lose that concentration in the last race at Ayr.

Here was the first record breaker of the day. A near £17 loss. My biggest since trading the horse win markets. SEVEN times I went in to retrieve a loss on 'Shy Glance' only to make it worse. It really shouldn't take me that long to get the hint.

To be honest, I shouldn't have traded the race as I was in the middle of making dinner and my attention was elsewhere. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I recovered a little in the following race, but it was still rather annoying.

As so often seems the case with me these days, the evening racing is much better. Indeed, I traded 9 races and didn't have a loser.

I had, near enough, fully recovered the £17 by the time the 7:20 at Lingfield came along. And boy, did it come along with a bang.

Huge amounts of money started coming in for 'Toga Tiger' and I was fortunate enough to spot it early. I was able to get on at 3.35 and had various trades all the way in to 2.28. This saw the second record of the day. £39 and my biggest winning trade since trading the horse win markets.

As the price continued to steam, the large amounts kept coming in big leaps, driving the price still further. Ultimately, the move stalled and the market started to steadily reverse, though not quite so sharply. There was money to be made on the drift, but I was reluctant to get involved just in case the huge sums arrived again taking the price in quickly.

The rest of the evening was spent adding a further £23 to the total giving another record breaking figure of £87. My best ever daily total for trading the horse win markets. If only it were always that easy.


Steve said...

Don't get too hung up about losing trades Alistair. They're part and parcel of trading and we can't expect to win them all. Spending too much time trying to recover losing trades will ultimately lead to bad decisions either in that market or the next.

We've all been in the situation of going back into the market only for it to get much worse. If we read the market direction wrong in the first place it's unlikely we'll get the direction right going in again as generally we go back in with the same view of which direction the markets moving. I think it's more important to be spending more time ensuring we limit the size of any losing bets rather than limiting how many we have. As long as we win more than we lose that's the most important factor not how we get there.

Trying to limit the number of losing markets can remove any edge you have as it can make any trades over cautious and is more likely to reduce potential profits rather than reduce potential losses.

So far in June I've lost in just over 20% of the markets I've played. Obviously I'd love to get that down but I'm sure it'd impact on my style,the number of markets I'd enter and the profits I'd take out of any remaining races. At the moment my average loss is only slightly higher than the average win so the figures work.

Anyhoo well done on the record profit and if your biggest trading loss so far is only £17 I doubt you're doing too much wrong just learn to accept the losses and those £39 wins will hopefully occur more frequently

Alistair said...

Hi Steve,

I completely agree with your sentiments on losing trades. Even now, I'm earning more than I'm losing, but if I can reduce the number and size of those losing trades my profits will increase significantly - without having to worry about increasing my winning trades.

I'm still working on that though. No doubt it may take a little while, but I do believe I am getting there.

On those occasions where I have a loss for the day, the size of that loss is relatively stable whereas there are signs that my profitable days are increasing.

For example, I can't post a graph in a comment, but here's my daily returns for the past two weeks...

£26.20, £15.55, -£8.87, £2.43, £50.51, £9.71, -£5.29, £22.12, -£8.33, £26.47, £35.14, -£7.13, £87.21 and -£7.49.

I'm still having difficult days, like today, but the consequences of those difficulties are relatively minor. Given their size, it really shouldn't be outside the realms of possibility that these slight losing days can be turned into winning ones.

Thanks once again for the feedback. Much appreciated.


Steve said...

I still think you're putting far too much emphasis on your losing trades, reducing them won’t have some magical effect of increasing your end profit it’s just as likely to have a knock on effect of reducing the winning trades through being over cautious in your trading approach.

Obviously I’ve no idea of how many markets you’re trading per day,the frequency of the losses or how much you’re staking but from what I can see you’ve already got the loss side of things under control just by comparing your max wins and daily wins against the losses. I’m probably trading 30/40 races a day so any losses can be absorbed throughout those markets but I’m sure if I split things into hourly slots some would be losers. If you added consecutive days you’d probably absorb any losses too. Look at things on a longer term basis, as so far you haven’t posted a losing month which is some achievement.

It’s quite possible you’ve hit your peak rate already and apart from knocking out the stupid bets and re-entering the market you won’t be able to increase that average % by much and should now be looking to maximize what you’re doing. There’s only a certain % we’ll ever get out of the markets so the only way we’ll ever win more is by increasing stakes.

Maybe you should check your previous months pnl, download your bet history for the month and look at things like % losing markets, average winning/losing market and the % you take out of the market by adding up all your back bets for the month compared to how much profit you took over the month. It might surprise you or even disappoint you to see the bare figures but you need to be looking at the longer term picture to get a true result where you’re at with the trading. If I was winning on a continual basis I wouldn’t be too bothered about a win/loss rate of 75%/25% if you’re swing trading rather than tick trading it could even be higher.

Alistair said...

Hi Steve, and thanks again for the comment.

I do think long term believe it or not and the fact that I have never had a losing month is indeed something to be proud off.

I am, I freely admit, prone to letting short term losers annoy me. I just hate posting reds. In actual fact, it is part of my pessimistic nature to do so and I battle that through all areas of my life.

A friend of mine once said, "I take my successes for granted and let my failures bug me". Although he was taking about himself at the time, I've always remembered that as it also describes me to a tee.

The bottom line is, as long as I'm winning more than I'm losing I'm happy, though it won't stop the short term cursing whenever a loser comes along.

As regards analyzing my previous results, I do intend to. I haven't done so as yet as I've only been doing the win markets since the beginning of May. Consequently, because of the learning process, smaller stakes etc., I feel that the earlier data may be less valuable. However, now that the winnings are picking up, it is certainly something I will be doing soon.

Thanks again Steve.


BTW, if you fancy a discussion in real time, and can spare the time doing so, you're more than welcome to nip into the chat room sometime.

Steve said...

Unfortunately there's no easy way to come to terms with those reds. Took me a long time to realise the only way my trading would become easier and more profitable is when you accept them as part of the game.

It gets said on so many other trading blogs/forum 'take your losses/red up etc' it's almost become some glib statement to throw out, but when you eventually accept it and it becomes part of your trading it's almost like some eureka moment and you kick yourself for not doing it ages ago.

I doubt we'll ever completely overcome the urge to let some run and only recently I'd got caught out with my biggest loss in the last three months, trading without pics laid one for £50/£500, missed closing before the start ,horse got a flyer and the odds just shrank to 1.01 while I sat there like a rabbit in the headlights. I think one of the reasons I hadn't redded up was because it was first of the day and I'd been on a good run and even made £500 the day before so got too complacent. The simple fact is the only reason I'd been doing so well is because I'd been following the rues and redding out. Still annoys me now I was so stupid and it'll be another cople of months before the blot disappears from my 3 month pnl.

Steve said...

Anyone else get stuffed by the site crash today ? Cost me £208 in the end as the API wasn't returning details of matched bets. My own fault as it was doing the same when the site first crashed for the 5:00 Brighton but luckily my offsets had been matched. Should've given up then I suppose or at least placed much smaller bets and only gone back in when they'd been matched.

Luckily I'd been doing ok up to then so didnt put me on a losing day but made the days efforts a complete waste of time. let's hope this isn't going to be a regular occurence due to wimbledon.

I have popped in the chat site a few times Alistair but there's never anyone in when I enter. What time do people go in there ?

Alistair said...

Sorry to hear of your problems Steve. I was unaware there had been a crash at all. I've only managed small amount of trading over the past few days as I have visitors - which is the reason I've not been in the chat room much.

Interestingly, I need make a comment in the room yesterday that I was having the odd bet submission/cancellation take a little longer than normal. Perhaps that was a sign to something more serious happening. I suspect their systems were overloaded by tennis/Murray punters.

Anyway, regarding the chat room, someone, i.e. me, is normally in during afternoon racing, though I tend to be concentrating on the horses so I don't necessarily respond quickly to questions. The room has been quiet the past couple of weeks though there is a handful of 'regulars'.