Not The Best Of Starts

July kicks of with a loser, which, given my recent trend of alternating between profit and loss, might have been expected.

Quit frankly, my horse trading today was appalling. Up to 3pm, I'd done 5 races, scratching two and losing the others. The last of these was £13 at which point I switched off my computer and went for a long walk.

Thanks to some greyhound trading in the morning, I was only £4 down, but it was clear to me that things weren't going for me on the horses so I thought it wise to stop.

I returned for the evening session and kicked off with a £10+ win, followed by another £1 or so in the next. Having more or less recovered my horse racing losses from earlier in the day, things were looking up. Unfortunately, I then embarked on a 4 race losing run that saw me saying goodbye to £3.00, £10.57, £10.04 and £10.35! So off went the computer again.

As I've said many times during this journey, I'm trying to swing trade, yet everytime, I jump ship like a scalper. In each of those big losses, I place my opening bet and the market immediately reversed. I panicked, bailed out for a 1-3 tick loss only for the market to turn and go past my original position. In one case, my initial entry point was a back @ 2.98. The price eventually fell to 2.58, yet I end up with a huge loss. It is so damned frustrating.

I'm getting the move right, but, at the moment, I don't seem to be able to find the courage of my convictions and hold on for another 60 secs to let that swing develop. It is costing me dear. Having said that, Sod's Law dictates that when I do bite my lip and hold on, the damn thing keeps heading south.

Even if I abandoned the idea of trying to swing trade, and resorted to scalping, I'd end up losing because, in effect, that is what I'm doing at the moment - scalping (and losing).

This is something that I am going to have to live with whilst I try and develop the experience and confidence to believe in myself and my assessment of the markets. It sure is disappointing to get the decent moves correct so often, yet still end up losing on them.

I'm also a little concerned that my approach to the pre-race markets is scattergun like and random. That eureka moment hasn't come as yet and shows no sign of doing so anytime soon. I know, and have read, that most pre-race traders take 12 months before things really start to click consistently. I must take my hat of to them for sticking with it as I'm finding this perpetual roller coaster ride no fun at all.

I did come back for the last two races of the day and lost the first but had a decent return on the last to reduce my overall losses on the nags today to just under £30. Ouch! Fortunately, some additional greyhound trading in the evening saw me end up with an overall loss on the day of just under £15.

So, a bit of damage limitation today and I'll soon get that small loss back. It doesn't get away from the fact that I hate posting negative numbers.


Anonymous said...

I'm doing exactly the same!
All over the place on early trades then improving during the evening.I hope to get this cracked before night racing reduces next month, otherwise I'm buggered!

From today I am going to start trading with £2 Stakes until i get into the zone, and only raise stakes when in tune with the market, rather than fighting against it.

Good luck.

Anthony said...

Hi Alistair,
It sounds like you're scared of missing a swing so you're taking the price when it has already moved a bit. Have a look at the graphs to see how far it is likely to go against you if you enter at a certain point and maybe move your stake up a bit (in the example you use). In this way, firstly you're getting a better price for the swing and secondly, it's less of a loss if it moves against you. The important bit here is your entry point. Most markets will fluctuate between 2 points just before it moves so you've got to choose which way it's going and then choose either the high or low point of the fluctuations to get in. You'll get your loss back in no time, you always do.

Anonymous said...

im in the same position as you are. that is to say i feel as though the way i trade is a little too random and not methodical enough, but your P/L has been green for over a year now which has to be a good sign.

keep it up

Anonymous said...

Take heart from the fact that you're able to spot the swings - not everyone can and timing is something that you can experiment with.

Having similar issues myself - eagerness to get involved too early is causing a few problems. It's infuriating, but not uncommon. I've read quite a few posts about this sort of thing on RacingTraders forum. Just have a play around with your timing of entry points and see what works.

Great blog - keep up the good work.

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