Plodding Along

Not a huge amount to update the blog with. I've been busy paper trialling something on the horses and nibbling away at the greyhounds when I've had the time. Thankfully, this has enabled me to put a small amount of cash on the board, though, as I said in an early post, I'm effectively writing July off. I'm continuing to trade, but it is very much low key at the moment.

During quiet spells, I've started to think about other sports and how to trade them. Doing so will be completely different from what I'm used to. I'll have to develop an opinion! With pre-race trading, whether it be dogs or horses, I'm watching the numbers bounce up and down the ladder. I don't trade based on any preconception of an animal's likelihood of winning.

With two major events on this weekend, the Ashes 2nd Test and of course, the 2009 Open Golf Championship, I have found my mind wandering to these markets.

I've only dabbled in cricket before, but having spent a watching brief during the last test, I was encouraged by the possibilities. Similarly, during The US Masters, the swings to be traded were quite terrific. One only needs to get the opening position correct. Easier said than done of course.

I haven't thought too much about the cricket tomorrow. I am a Scot after all. Where would I start? I'll spend sometime browsing forums on that one and see if I can glean any information from them.

I have been thinking about the golf though. While the idea of placing a number of smallish trades on a few outsiders appeals, I cannot help but be drawn to a certain Tiger Woods.

Surely his price is too short? At the time of writing, he has an implied probability for winning the tournament of 28%. His nearest rival, out of all the competitors taking part has a 3% chance of winning the tournament - according to the market.

Now I agree, Tiger is a terrific player, but I cannot believe that he is so much better than everyone else. Given the fact that not that long ago he underwent major knee surgery, is he really back to his best? This, combined with the vagaries of the Scottish weather, which can reduce the best to tears, means that I cannot believe his price will not drift significantly at some time during the tournament.

The weather is set to worsen as the tournament progresses, with the wind picking up significantly towards Sunday. This in itself should make for an interesting final round. Thursday though, is likely to be the better day and with Tiger teeing off just after 9am, he may well get off to a flying start.

In addition to this, I think the average golfing punters are automatically expecting Tiger to win, which is forcing his price to be lower than it really should be.

With all this in mind, I'm looking at doing the following:

If, I can get a lay @ 3.5 before the competition starts, I'll take it. Then I'll monitor the odds during Tiger's round. I suspect he will shorten in-play during his first round. I'll see how short his odds go and decide whether I will lay him again.

This should be interesting as it the first golf trade I will have attempted.

6 comments:

PhilipH said...

Wishing you luck in the golf. I think your analysis is pretty good; might even have a go at laying the tiger myself!
Phil

Rick Ford said...

Hi Alistair,

I live near the open golf course and I've been told by a friend of mine who is a caddie for one of the golfers this week (cannot say who)says that the course is too tight/tough for tiger's long play game. I 've also heard Padraig Harrington (current champion) lost 16 balls in a practice round this week so he could also be a good lay option either in 3-ball (for low odds) or for a top ten finsih @ Odds 4.70.

Rick Ford said...

It's me again. Can you post the html code for that scrolling text box in the comments area? For the life of me I cannot get one up for my blog.

Cheers

Rick

Alistair said...

Here you go Rick:

[textarea style="width: 100%; height: 100px; background-color: #CBCBFE; font-family: tahoma,verdana,sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" readonly="readonly"]
Type whatever you want in this bit.
If you want a list, put each item on a new line.

Item 1
Item 2
Item 3
[/textarea]

Blogger will not let me post certain html tags inside a comment so I have used square brackets. Remember and replace each [ and ] with the corresponding angle bracket.

Rick Ford said...

Thanks Alistair. I'll give it a go!

My caddie friend was right regarding Tiger Woods!

Alistair said...

You're welcome Rick.

I'm even more annoyed about missing the Tiger Woods boat now.

Alistair