Any Unquoted Value

I started looking at the correct score markets towards the tail end of last season, which was bad timing on my part, so I have been keen to pick it up again. One thing I have been drawn to is the 'Any Unquoted' scoreline where the odds are shorter than 5.00.

While I don't doubt that many feel that these odds may represent value as far as the final result after 90 mins is concerned, I've been intrigued as whether these odds represent good short term lay opportunities, with a view to trading out after 10 mins or so.

Certainly, all the games I've looked at so far would seem to indicate that this is true. Take, the Arsenal v Portsmouth match yesterday. I laid the AU @ 2.5 for £50 and was out after ten minutes with a nice profit. The final score was 4-1 to The Gunners and the market was proved to be correct.

I did the same with the Ajax v Sparta game today, only I bottled it. The AU was trading around 2.78 mid morning, so I stuck a cheeky lay in at 2.50 for £50. This was matched 15 minutes or so before kick off. The odds continued to shorten until they reached 2.28 just before the match started. This represented a lot of ticks to recover within 10 minutes of play before I could even scratch, far less profit, which was enough to sow an element of doubt in my mind. As a result, I took the decision to trade out @ 2.34 for a guaranteed loss rather than run the risk of an early goal putting me further in trouble.

I was happy with that decision. I think as traders we should always exit a trade if we ever feel uneasy about our choices. The point being though, despite my exit, This match did exactly as I've seen before, i.e. the odds increased sharply. Indeed, in this particular match, there were no goals scored at all.

The next qualifying match I looked at was Barcelona v Ath Bilbao. Odds of 2.74 were available shortly before kick-off. On this occasion I chose not to get involved, but as I type, it's 0-0 at half time and the AU odds are 9.20.

Although the pre-match market may feel that there will be goals in these games, and frequently they are correct, how many games have we seen were the goals all come early on? With the odds so low in these matches, I can't help but feel they are not value backs, at least from a trading point of view. The downside due to an early goal is significantly reduced, with lots of time left in the match to recover our losses in other ways.

This is something I'll be looking at in more depth whenever I see a suitable match.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yes, similar effect backing 0-0 in half time market, because it's only 45 mins, depreciation is swift.
Opposite way round, backing long odds on teams (90mins) see's little expansion in their price,Ist 30 mins.
More & more traders know what the correct price is for these markets, so we need to access who would be happy with a draw, by team line up & formation.
We can always price up accordingly, here & there, our offers will sometimes be accepted.
Don't wait for others to put up prices, put up the prices yourself on low liquidity markets
Smokey

Alistair said...

Hi Smokey,

I'm only just beginning to look at the football markets so very much at the experimental stage. However, laying low priced AUs seems a workable market. That's the important issue for me though - getting the trading strategy correct for the right market conditions. Not always easy.

Still I'm looking forward to grabbing my share of the money that goes into these markets.

Thanks for popping by.

Craig said...

Interesting post mate and the past two football games I have looked at have seen this. (Aston Villa v Liverpool and Arsenal v Celtic.)

However, I much prefer to trade the 0-0 in this matter as whilst an early goal can kill you, it seems to have a slightly more linear progression for pure scalping. (AUQ seems more prone to price shifts reflecting attacks, possibly due to the smaller gaps of .1 or .2 as opposed to .5 or 1 on larger 0-0 prices)