Thrills And Spills At Knockhill

This weekend saw my annual sojourn to Knockhill for the British Touring Car Championship. It was a great weekend with action galore, which many of you may have caught live on ITV4 yesterday. It rounded off a very poor week as far a trading was concerned and was a welcome change for that.

Sometimes I wonder why I bother doing this trading lark. It is so frustrating at times, none more so than today, having woken to the news that Tiger lost the US PGA Championship.

As regular readers will know, I had laid him at the start of the tournament @ 2.98 expecting him to drift at some stage, yet the market made him shorter and shorter, even though he wasn't leading. By the end of the first day, my stop loss kicked in and I was all red for around £18.

On the Friday night, tried scalping the market to nibble away at that red figure. All I did was make it worse, only be £2 though. Fortunately, I managed trade out just before he sunk a birdie putt that saw his odds drop nearly 30 ticks. I decided there and then that scalping the market without live pictures was too dangerous for my liking and I resigned myself to the loss of some £20.

On my return from Knockhill on Sunday night I had a look at the market again and he was trading at 1.26 and 1 shot in the lead. Yang was trading around 5.00. I momentarily thought about another lay, but to be honest, it was but a fleeting thought and certainly not a serious one. I was far too tired to think about scalping the market again and so I left it.

So, here I am, not long out of bed, typing this in the knowledge that my initial assumption proved to be right but I still wound up losing.

I think this is a typical example of why I find trading pre-race markets easier than any other sport. With pre-race trading, I do not have to have any knowledge about the runners, what form they are in or what they had for breakfast. I just watch the numbers jumping up and down and base my decisions on that.

With other sports, particularly those that have to be traded in-play, I have to form an opinion. That opinion is frequently at odds to what the market thinks as the event progresses but the trader in me does the proper thing and limits the losses. Then of course the market comes back to my original way of thinking, by which time I'm usually very reluctant to put more money into the market.

The fundamental issue here is that in all of these cases, I do not have live pictures to guide my take on the play as it unfolds. Which, in itself, is the reason I do not trade many in-play events.

Still, In the case of Tiger and the US PGA, I doubt that live pictures would have helped as I still would have traded out as his odds dropped.

Not much for me in the way of trading this coming week what with shopping for new school clothes and other extremely boring jobs like that. Have a good one if you're getting involved.

4 comments:

PhilipH said...

You going back to school then? Shopping for new school clobber. Is it a Betfair trading school or what?

Bad luck with Tiger. What a choker when he gets beat at the death. You just can't trust bi-peds. I keep banging on about it, but you have to admit I'm right!

;-)

Phil

ballb0y said...

Alistair,

I have experienced similar frustrations with in-play trading (without seeing the pictures). My football trading has decimated my funds, but it has forced me to change strategy, which from looking at recent football results should be a lot more profitable, not that I have really got involved yet. As for golf, it can be done blind as all players make birdies & bogeys which shift their price accordingly. I have done this by simply backing a player in contention when his price goes up and hoping it comes back enough to trade out. Obviously some you win some you lose though. I just wish I'd backed YE Yang at the 20/1 that was on offer last night! Food for though when Woods is in the market place...

Regards,

JK

Anonymous said...

hmm i cant use the chat again Ali seeing only ads, have any idea how we fixed this last time?

Harvy666

Alistair said...

Phil: I wish I was going back to school. For me, those really were the best days of my life. No responsibilities, no hassles and certainly none of the shit life has to offer when you are 'grown up'.

As for bi-peds, I'm having just as much difficulty with quadrupeds these days so I don't think it will make much difference.

JK: I can see golf being one of those frustrating sports that I always get wrong from a trading point of view only to get right from a gambling perspective. Unfortunately, I no longer gamble in the traditional sense. I'll persevere with golf though as the swings are terrific. I just need to get on the right side of them.

Harvy666: No-one else is having a problem as far as I am aware. When you had this issue in the past it was because, if memory serves me correctly, you hadn't updated to the latest version of Java. You'll need to go to the Sun website to download the latest version.

Thanks for taking the time to comment chaps.

Alistair