US PGA

Back before the British Open, I suggested laying Tiger pre-tournament. Despite my confidence, I missed the opportunity to place a bet for reasons I won't go into here. Needless to say, he missed the cut.

Now with the US PGA upon us, much of the argument I put forward then, applies now. I cannot believe that odds of 2.98 can be viewed by anyone as value, particularly given the size and quality of the field.

For me, it is an obvious lay as I'm certain it will drift at some stage during the tournament. This time, I haven't made the mistake of not getting on. I've already laid him for £100 @ 2.98 and I'll be looking to trade out around 6.00.

2 comments:

Drifter said...

Good Luck with this strategy. I think it is a good plan. Do you have an exit point in mind if Tiger starts well or will you just let the bet run?

Drifter

Alistair said...

Hi Drifter, I trust all is well with you.

I've just typed a long winded response to this and in doing so, inadvertently submitted a back bet at £150 @ 2.96 while using the 'what if' function. Had to place another lay to cancel it.

To cap it all, although I'm sure I pressed the submit button, that reply hasn't appeared. I won't bother typing it all out again.

You've go to laugh or you would cry sometimes.

I have a closing back bet sitting in wait at 6.00 and considering an exit at either 2.00 for a £50 all red or at 1.5 for a £100 all red, near enough. I'll monitor his progress over the first two days and decide then.

I doubt his odds will drop to 1.5 before the cut, unless everyone else plays with one arm tied behind their backs.

Famous last words.